Joško Gvardiol
Gvardiol is currently the most expensive Croatian footballer of all time. CIES Football Observatory has him valued at 87.3 million Euros (100 million USD). Gvardiol is one of the most sought after center-backs in world football. He has the best dribble success rate in the entire Bundesliga, including forwards and midfielders, at 74%. Real Madrid, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham and numerous other clubs have expressed extreme interest in his services. Safe to say that Joško ‘Pep’ Gvardiol will keep the Vatreni’s defense secure for the next decade and a half.
Joško Gvardiol stats this season:
- 17 appearances
- 1 goal, 2 assists
- 4 big chances created
Joško Gvardiol stats in comparison to other center-backs in the top 5 leagues:
- 99th percentile in dribbles completed
- 98th percentile in total shots
- 96th percentile in assists
- 96th percentile in progressive passes completed
- 95th percentile in pressuring opposing players
- 95th percentile in shot-creating actions
- 95th percentile in touches in attacking penalty area
- 94th percentile in progressive passes
- 93rd percentile in tackles
- 93rd percentile in interceptions
- 89th percentile in progressive carries
- 86th percentile in attempted passes
- 62nd percentile in blocks
- 39th percentile in aerials won
- 4th percentile in clearances
As made evident, Gvardiol’s only astoundingly low stat is clearances, which isn’t necessarily bad, proving that he is calm and more decisive on the ball. He’d rather make a pass or carry the ball up the pitch than to clear it. These stats demonstrate that Gvardiol is one of the most well-rounded defenders in world football. He is in the 90+ percentile for almost all of these categories.
To those who are still skeptical or uncertain about Gvardiol’s current level, I’ve compared these stats with David Alaba, a similar center-back to Joško Gvardiol.
Gvardiol beats Alaba out in 11 of these categories, and Alaba beats Gvardiol in 6, most of which being the goals and assists categories.
Still not convinced? Let’s compare him to two of world football’s best center-backs, Virgil Van Dijk and Ruben Dias.
Gvardiol 13 – Van Dijk 4
Gvardiol 14 – Dias 4
Now, I’m not saying these stats prove that Gvardiol is better than VVD or Dias just yet, but they are suggesting that he is already on the level of football’s best defenders. Statistically, he outclasses them. With some experience, Gvardiol can be the best defender in the world one day.
Luka Sučić
Luka Sučić is now the 6th most valuable teenager outside of Europe’s top 5 leagues. He is worth 13.5 million Euros (15.45 million USD). According to PassIT Rankings, Sučić is ready to perform at the high level of any of the top 5 European leagues. A rating of over 100 (taking into account the player’s various statistics and performances) deems a player worthy of performing in a top 5 league. Above 150 indicates that they would be a top player in any one of these leagues. Sučić currently has 143.33 points and we’re only at the halfway point of the season. Last year, Sučić had 109.88 points in the entire year. This shows he is improving well and on the right path as a young footballer.
Luka Sučić has also stated to germanijak.hr that his dream is to play for Hajduk one day. Could we see Luka 2.0 in a Hajduk shirt at the end of his career?
Luka Sučić stats in comparison to other midfielders in the top 5 leagues:
- 93rd percentile in total shots
- 86th percentile in progressive passes completed
- 85th percentile in pressuring opposing players
- 82nd percentile in shot-creating actions
- 82nd percentile in non-penalty expected goals
- 75th percentile in dribbles completed
- 72nd percentile in blocks
- 69th percentile in touches in attacking penalty area
- 54th percentile in progressive carries
- 49th percentile in aerials won
- 39th percentile in progressive passes
Do not be alarmed at Sučić’s oddly low progressive pass ranking. The more important number is the amount of completed progressive passes. This means, Sučić attempts less progressive passes than 61% of midfielders in the top 5 leagues, however, when he does attempt them, he completes them more often than 86% of all midfielders.
Sučić’s stats may seem low in comparison to Gvardiol’s, however that is simply because of how astonishing Gvardiol is, and not because Sučić is underwhelming. We can see from these stats that, in fact, Sučić is actually performing better than most top 5 league midfielders.
Hrvoje Smolčić
German club Eintracht Frankfurt has just bought Rijeka defender Hrvoje Smolčić for an incredibly cheap price of 2.5 million Euros. Smolčić is a left-sided central-defender that can play left-back if needed, like Gvardiol, and also Rijeka’s captain at the young age of 21. Smolčić is a very mature and underrated defender; he is extremely composed, rarely makes mistakes. Smolčić is just another solid player to add to the National Team’s center-back depth.
Hrvoje Smolčić stats in comparison to all players in the 1. HNL:
- 11.55 recoveries per 90 (90+ percentile)
- 11.26 progressive passes per 90 (95+ percentile)
- 56.52 passes per 90 (90+ percentile)
- 86.55% pass accuracy (85+ percentile)
- 25.73 forward passes per 90 (100th percentile, meaning he has the most in the entire league)
- 8.14 passes to final third per 90 (85+ percentile)
Lovro Majer
Majer has been fantastic this season for Stade Rennais in Ligue 1. See below a graph assessing the creativity and ball turnovers of all midfielders in Ligue 1.
Lovro Majer stats in comparison to other midfielders in the top 5 leagues:
- 99th percentile in assists
- 99th percentile in expected assists
- 98th percentile in non-penalty expected goals + expected assists
- 97th percentile in shot-creating actions
- 95th percentile in total shots
- 95th percentile in dribbles completed
- 94th percentile in progressive carries
- 90th percentile in progressive passes completed
- 89th percentile in touches in attacking penalty area
- 88th percentile in pressuring opposing players
- 66th percentile in non-penalty goals
- 46th percentile in progressive passes attempted
Gabriel Vidović
Gabriel Vidović resumed individual training two days ago after recovering from a cold, and will be in Bayern Munich’s first team squad ahead of the match against Koln. Expect the youngster to make an appearance in the match.
Vidović has been Bayern Munich II’s best player this season, and many Bayern fans such as myself have fallen in love with the player. Vidović is touted as a top 3 talent in the entire Bayern academy, including amazing players like Musiala, A. Ibrahimović, Motika, Wanner, Zvonarek, etc.
Vidović has 13 goals and 7 assists in 20 matches this season (17.5 calculated games). Meaning, Vidović puts up 1.14 G/A per 90 minutes as a midfielder. He’s also extremely versatile and can play CM, AM, LM, LW and CF.
Vidović is currently valued at $3.15 million USD, but expect this number to skyrocket when he plays more minutes with the first team.
Marko Brkljača
Hajduk’s Marko Brkljača was named a top 15 2004 born wonderkid in the world! (SMG) He seems to be currently ranked number 5 or 6 on this list, behind amazing talents like Gavi, Youssoufa Moukoko and Luka Romero.
Brkljača is currently good enough to be in Hajduk’s first team squad and should push for a starting role as soon as next season.
As you can see, Brkljača cut his hair, probably got tired of all the Modrić references.
Mario Vušković
Vušković’s strange move to the second division of German football seemed questionable at first, as he had trouble cracking Hamburger SV’s starting XI, but lately he’s been amazing. Arguably Hamburg’s best player of late, Vušković is nicknamed ‘The Croatian Wall’ by his teammates. Look to see him continue his solid play for the former German top-flight club and potentially help his team be promoted to the Bundesliga. Bundesliga football would be excellent for him next season.
Dion Drena Beljo
The 6 foot 5 Osijek loanee has been killing it with Istra this season, putting up 11 goals and 4 assists in 21 games. Expect him to be back with Osijek next year and hopefully put up even better numbers with a stronger supporting cast.
Other youngsters worth mention:
Martin Baturina and Marko Bulat from Dinamo need to seal themselves a starting position. They’ve been operating in rotation/ super sub roles lately but have proven themselves better than certain teammates like Mišić, Gojak and Tolić. Hopefully Dinamo’s new manager gives them more playing time. Josip Šutalo seems to be cementing himself a starting role with the Modri and should he continue to progress, we may have yet another good defensive gem on our hands.
Stipe Biuk and Marin Ljubičić from Hajduk have been decent this season, but need to take the next step. Ljubičić needs to cement himself as a starting striker for Hajduk and Biuk needs to improve his scoring output. He’s been a solid performer this year but just isn’t producing enough.
Looks like our defence is going to be solid in the coming years but who’s going to score the goals
What I want to know is who made some of these stats and how the F@CK do you even judge or classify them?
% of expected non penalty goals …pressuring opposing ball carriers…progressive passes attempted?
Such a grey area for so much of it.
You’re a defender and you just contain a guy to force him to pass instead of attacking him aggressively does this count.
A pass from the left flank to the right that only moves toward the opposing Goal 6” does this count?
Do they have software to track these movements because doing it visually would be impossible,and open to much debate.
How tf is there no Roko Simic on this list or even the honourable mentions!
He has been an absolute machine at Liefering and in the youth league with the RB Salzburg U19.
Because I’ve written so many articles about him and there’s nothing to really say at the moment. Everyone knows about him and he’s still playing well, just slowing down when it comes to goals right now.
This article is less about listing out every top talent we have ahead of this season, and more about news around our top talents. Not much going on with Simic right now whereas Gvardiol is impressing in BuLi and getting valued at 100M. Smolcic just transferred, Vidovic will be getting big minutes soon, etc.
I’ll probably be posting these types of articles monthly and if there is more news around Roko by then, then I’ll write about him.
Fair enough, I was just surprised that he wasn’t on the list.
Great write bud. Had no idea that Smolcic was such a good prospect. Vidovic looks like the real deal. What’s your take on Biuk? I thought that guy was amazing but seems to have cooled off a bit. Maybe just needs to leave Hajduk.
He seems to be doing every thing well but just isn’t producing. Getting unlucky I guess. Still has a load of talent.
Colina also provides like 0 support up his wing and he’s often left isolated.
Interesting, well good to hear he seems to be doing well at least. Dude’s got time to develop…
Thanks for this write-up Markus, you always do a fantastic job!
In the discussion of “player value”, I wonder how this information is developed. Gvardiol being worth $100 million USD is massive and I can barely believe that type of price tag on a young Croatian player. I’m not saying its not true, I’m saying its super high, considering the fact that only 1 year ago he was bought for under $21 million and Transfer Market has him valued at $27.5 million (as of December 2021…1 month ago)…thats a far cry from $100 million USD. The real indicator will be how much a team will actually pay for him. RB Liepzig currently sits in 9th place in their league, imagine how much it would help them if they sold Gvardiol for even close to $100 million.
With regards to our future potentials…we really need to wait and see how things play out. Moving from the HNL to a bigger league requires the player to be mentally strong. There are tons of factors that can affect them even before they set their feet on the playing field. More money in their life, culture of their new club, the new coach and how the player fits in, injuries, confidence…these are just a few variables.
On another note, I read somewhere that Kramaric is probably re-newing or extending his contract at his club and I have to say I respect the guy for doing that. Why break something thats working well for you?
100 million means that’s the lowest Leipzig would accept for Gvardiol. As of now, anything lower is a no-go.
Transfermarkt have him much lower, but players almost always go for more expensive than their Transfermarkt value. Gvardiol was around 3-5 million on that site when Leipzig bought him for 20.
I guess we will wait and see. Personally, I want him to feel comfortable wherever he ends up and I hope the evaluation put on him doesn’t fuck up his head…thats a lot of pressure for a young player that was worth $20 million a year ago.
Looks Like Leipzig has some savvy management!
Leipzig is like big budget Dinamo
Incredible stats to fight the guys saying we are all just wearing homer glasses
How stacked could we be in the next couple of tourneys?
No longer are we just the perpetual dark horse
Vidovic for me looks super exciting
Are the Germans still trying to poach him??
Long live Croatian nogomet
Filip Benkovic finally terminated his contract with Leicester. He’s off to Udinese on a free.
Praying he gets his career back on track in Italy.
Here is a guy that could even find form and catch on fire
Built like a beast
Benkovic chose money.
He signed a good EPL contract and probably had many chances to reduce his pay (so he can be loaned to a team of his liking).
I think his contract may have been the reason why he was loaned out to these random teams that didn’t make any sense to be loaned out to.
Can’t think of any reason why a prospect like him would have been fine being loaned out to teams like Bristol, Leuven, etc especially when those teams already had CBs and didn’t have a need for him (and teams like Celtic were begging for another loan deal for him).
When you compare his situation to Mario Pasalic’s situation (when Pasalic was bought young by Chelsea) you had Mario’s team ensure that he was always loaned out to a top-5 league team, and they made sure there was a need for him on each team (which is why he got game time at each team).
Not sure who manages Benkovic, but I’ve never seen such a horrible set of loan deals, especially for a 13 million pound player.
Markus, fantastic article!!! Gonna be the next stat man for the Vatreni
Seriously though, Bulat and Baturina would already be receiving multi-million euro offers if it weren’t for Dinamo’s coaches. These two deserve much more play time than they are currently receiving
Especially Bulat, not sure what more he needs to do to make it into the starting XI
I need to see Misic out and Bulat in. It’s really starting to piss me off…
misic is better rn
No. Bulat is quicker, more decisive, better distributor and dribbler. He just gets no chances.
Probably due to his age.
misic is good for the croatian league, bulat has potential to be a nt player in the future. But, if dinamo are playing in a win now mode which they are because 4 teams are challenging for the title rn, misic is the way to go at least based on the first half of the season but things can change. I watch almost all of dinamos games and thats the way i see it. The player who I think deserves a increase in minutes the most is tolic. Bulat is gonna be fine, Majer and Ivanusec didnt get much playing either when they first came to dinamo from Lokomotiva
Outstanding analysis.
Holy shit!!! What a write up!
Markus taking us all to math class with those numbers. Well done!
What catches my eye most here is Gvardiol. It’s always hard to determine how well a defender is doing as that position scores/assists the least (not counting GK) on the pitch. I watch Leipzig games when I can but always tough to gauge defenders. Those stats are SCARY!
What’s more scary is Gvardiol is still a teenager (for another 2 weeks). He’s doing all of this and making a name for himself as a 19 year-old.
The Vatreni have never had a world class backline. We have always relied on midfield players with the occasional Suker/Prso/Dudu/Mandzukic
Could Gvar be the start of a world class line with Sosa, DCC, Stanisic???
I really like Ante’s point about having a great backline- something that has never come together- shout out to Majer – i think that kid could be a top level player in Europe for a long time- every time i see him – he brings some other element- left footed kickers are everywhere with nasi now – Majer, Sosa , Sucic- that’s an understated attack balance we haven’t had either -it’s all good news with the HNS mladi
Didn’t realize Dion Drena Beljo was actually scoring goals.
Nice to see a 6’5″ striker popping in goals, especially at 19 years of age (even if it’s the HNL). Hopefully, Nenad Bjelica integrates him into Osijek’s starting eleven next season and focuses on developing him further (especially since they will likely be in Europa next year).
Good comment about Josip Šutalo. I watched some Europa this year, and noticed him playing very well. He’s better than Kévin Théophile-Catherine and should be starting regularly over him. They need to get rid of that overpaid Frenchman.
Also, nice to see that Mario Vušković is still in the mix. I wrote him off the second he accepted a transfer to 2nd division Germany for peanuts.
I didn’t like how he played in a couple of the U21 games I watched, and since we have so much talent in our backline, he’s unlikely to ever crack it. But it’s always good to have depth, so good to see that he’s playing well.
Gvardiol, Sučić and Majer are no-brainer talents. All three should be in our WC2022 squad without question. Vidović and Brkljača are legit future talents too. No question. Stipe Biuk and Marin Ljubičić are solid, but Hajduk scares me with them.
Why does hajduk scare you ?
Because they seem to not really care about developing these players.
For example, if Vušković is actually talented enough to be a National Team player, then they made the wrong decision to sell him off so quickly. He’s still young and needs game time in the HNL to develop. Selling him early could mess all that up.
I think Biuk is a very good talent. I am hearing the same for Ljubičić…but now I am hearing that Hajduk want’s to sell Ljubičić already?
That is a disaster for him, as well as our National Team.
I want Hajduk to remain committed to developing our young prospects, so that our National Team can become stronger.
all the teams in the croatian league need to sell their players, to a lesser extent dinamo. I do agree with you that it would have been better for vuskovics development if he stayed in hajduk, but I cant say the same from Hajduks perspective. He wasnt much better than any of Hajduks cbs from last season and he was the only one who could command a transfer price. Plus hajduk brought in katic and elez and they had simic already, all of who are better than vuskovic rn.
the future is bright for Croatian football