Croatia-Spain: Pre-Game Tailgate

After yesterday’s madness in Group E and F, Croatia now know their path for the rest of the tournament. For the third Euro in a row, the Vatreni will face Spain, but this time in the knockout round. The knockout round draw hasn’t been very kind to Croatia, but they are not alone in that, as whoever advances to the final from the top-half of the bracket is going to have to run the gauntlet. 

Croatia would have had a very difficult Round of 16 matchup no matter where they finished in Group D, but at this stage, they’re just going to have to show their mettle and depth. Given the way this tournament was seeded due to having multiple hosts, it created an imbalance which has resulted in three Round of 16 matchups which – on any another day – could have been the Final (our match, Germany-England and Belgium-Portugal). For Croatia, the chance to attempt to exact sweet revenge is on tap if they can come through this tie – the opportunity to go back to Russia and (likely) take on France for a spot in the semifinals. Anything and everything is possible. 

With a few days to go, we’ve put together some of the major questions heading into the match:

Who starts at LB? 

Early reports appear to suggest that the injury Gvardiol sustained in the Scotland match was not serious and he should be ready to go. I expect Dalić to stick with Gvardiol even if Barišić is fully fit, unless Gvardiol isn’t 100%.

Who starts at RB? 

Dalić threw a bit of a curve-ball by starting Juranović v. Scotland, and it certainly worked out with him putting in the cross that led to Vlašić’s goal and showing the requisite hustle and heart needed. I expect Dalić to stick with him for the Spain game, but I personally would bring back Vrsaljko, even acknowledging that he’s out of form, as I think he will be a bit more solid defensively in a game we won’t be marauding forward as much as we were against Scotland. 

Do we play a 3-man pivot midfield of Brozović, Kovačić and Modrić? 

Given we’ll be playing against a Spanish team that will want to dominate possession, I don’t see Dalić moving away from a 3-man midfield to attempt to counteract the Spanish, aiming to allow Modrić to put his stamp on the game like he did in 2012 (one could argue it was his best game in checkers). With Kovačić shining in the midfield during the group stage, I’m on-board with keeping this shape given the opponent and the need to provide extra cover to our CBs. 

Who starts up top? 

This is really the million-dollar question to which, there really doesn’t seem to be a good answer. Rebić? We tried that and got nothing for 135 minutes in the group stage. Petković? We tried that for the other 135 minutes and got next to nothing. Budimir? I know some people want to bring him in, but remember he started against Cyprus and Malta, and we looked even more anemic than the Euros, with the team only coming to life v. Malta after he came off. I just don’t see him as a viable option nor do I see Dalić throwing him in cold after playing 0 minutes in the group stage. 

So, where does that leave us? I think Dalić will end up going with the least bad option, which is leaving in Petković and hoping that he can open up space for our two wingers on the counter, though I would really love to see Kramarić in this role, acknowledging that it’s not his natural position. Could it really be worse than what we’ve seen? The argument for Petković is similar to that of France in 2018 with Giroud, a striker that had no goals or assists, but in theory opened up space for those around him. 

Where does Vlašić play? 

After his performance in the group stage, Vlašić feels un-droppable, so it should be more of a question of where he plays rather than if he plays. If we play our midfield trio, then Vlašić can’t play his more traditional #10 role, and I’d expect to see him playing out wide on the right, even though this isn’t his best position. I expect Dalić to keep him there, ahead of Rebić, Brekalo or Ivanušec, even though it does feel like a lost opportunity to get Rebić’s speed on the pitch given we’ll be countering more than usual against Spain. 

What is Dalić’s critical decision? 

To play with a 3-man midfield and Vlašić on the wing OR drop one of Kovačić/Brozović and play Vlašić in the #10 role with Rebić/Ivanušec/Brekalo as a winger. If we were playing Poland or Sweden in a game where we’d expect to dominate possession, I expect we’d elect to go with a more attacking formation and play Vlašić in his natural role, but given we will need the extra firepower, I expect to see the 3-man midfield continue. 

How do we stack up against Spain? 

Both Croatia and Spain have struggled for goals during the group stage, and both sides have huge question marks at the striker position (it feels like Morata has been out of form for years). We have every reason to be confident and like our chances, even though this was not the best matchup we could have faced. 

With both midfields likely cancelling each other out, and both teams with struggling strikers, expect this game to be won on the wings. Both Croatia and Spain will fancy their chances out wide, with Spain facing (likely) two inexperienced outside backs and Croatia knowing that they can exploit Jordi Alba’s defensive liabilities and that Perišić v. Azpilicueta is a favorable matchup. I’m expecting a very close, cagey game, and wouldn’t be surprised to see it go to penalties. 

CroatianSports Nation, what do you think? Are you expecting major changes coming into the match – or did you see enough against Scotland to stick with the status quo?