After years of Dinamo dominance in the HNL, the 2024-25 title race is shaping up to be the most competitive, entertaining dogfight since Rijeka stole the crown in 2017.
18 games into the season, Hajduk Split and Rijeka share top spot at the table with 36 points, followed by Dinamo Zagreb in 3rd with 29. Rijeka did not lose a single match during their stellar autumn campaign, finishing the first half with 9 wins and 9 draws. Sitting beside them, Hajduk have suffered two frustrating losses to Gorica and Varaždin, but are riding on two massive victories against Dinamo; on home and away soil. The reigning champions in Zagreb are more than two matches out of 1st place, struggling to find a balance between Champions League action and domestic play.
Is this finally the year that Hajduk bring Prva Liga silverware home to Split, or will Rijeka win their second title within the last decade? Will both clubs choke the top spot in the table, allowing Dinamo to sneak their way toward an eighth consecutive victory?
Let’s dive into each team’s chances to win the 2024-25 season:
Hajduk Split: 35% to win the HNL
Hajduk are our favorites to win the league this year. Led by league-leading goalscorer Marko Livaja, Hajduk are outscoring their opponents 2:1 through the first half of the season, and are finally incorporating young talents into their starting squad. Vatreni legend Ivan Rakitić has made all the difference for Hajduk in the midfield, sporting a fabulous 7.48 FotMob average match rating this season. Rakitić, Filip Krovinović, Niko Sigur, and Anthony Kalik have rotated well in the middle of the pitch the past few months, providing critical midfield depth for Gennaro Gattuso’s squad. 20-year-old defenders Šimun Hrgović and Dominik Prpić have emerged as potential Croatian National Team ballers this season, bolstering Hajduk’s defense alongside the experienced Dario Melnjak and Filip Uremović. Livaja, leading the league with 10 goals and 7 assists, is complemented by a solid supporting cast of youngsters Stipe Biuk and Bruno Durdov on the wing, allowing him to lead the way up front.
On paper, you would think an HNL trophy is staring Hajduk in the eyes, ready to be paraded down the streets of Split in Spring. After years of seeing Hajduk bench their youth for average footballers, Gattuso has structured a squad in which his young, hungry stars bring the best out of their older, more poised teammates. However, to silence the banter and return Hajduk to its former glory, the boys must avoid silly losses and home-field draws to teams outside of Croatia’s Big Four — a trend that has bitten Hajduk in the rear for almost two decades. If it weren’t for Hajduk’s track record in the latter half of the season, we’d have Hajduk at around even odds to finish on top. It will be up to Gattuso, Rakitić, Livaja, and co. to prove us all wrong — for the first time since 2005.
Rijeka: 30% to Win the HNL
Rijeka might not be the eye candy of the HNL, but they have players who step up when it matters the most. Since the departure of young stud Franjo Ivanović, 23-year-old midfielder Toni Fruk has stepped into the role of the squad’s main striker, notching four goals and five assists through the first half of the season. Fruk is aided by fellow young talents Niko Janković and Marco Pašalić up top, who combined for six goals and five assists this campaign. In addition to their over-achieving offense, Rijeka’s defense has easily been the best in the league, only allowing seven goals through their first 18 matches of HNL play. However, this is where it gets tricky for the club going forward. Star 23-year-old centerback Niko Galešić completed a transfer to Dinamo during the winter break, a move that will surely weaken Rijeka’s back-line and only bolster the reigning champions’ odds at another title. Rijeka will look toward Stjepan Radeljić and Ante Majstorović to fill the void in defense, but only time will tell how much the transfer affects the table.
Again, Rijeka are yet to lose a match this season, giving them a solid chance of finishing top of the league. However, the departure of Galešić and the absence of a true, natural striker spark fear that the squad’s success might not be sustainable throughout the next few months, especially once Hajduk and Dinamo stomp their foot on the gas during the final stretch of the season.
Dinamo Zagreb: 30% to Win the HNL
Even if Dinamo was more than ten points out of first place at this point in the season, you just couldn’t count them out. Rattled by persisting injuries to the midfield and attack, a difficult Champions League schedule, and the emergence of Hajduk and Rijeka up the table, Dinamo have struggled to establish an identity through the first half of the HNL season. With the firing of head coach Nenad Bjelica and the hiring of Italian defensive legend Fabio Cannavaro, Dinamo will look to shake things up right from the get-go in 2025, starting with a mild test against Istra following a UCL bout with Arsenal on January 22nd. Soon enough, Petar Sučić, Josip Mišić, and Arijan Ademi will be back with the squad after missing significant time due to injuries, right in time for the Modri to make an effort to catch up with the league leaders. The club also brought former Croatia U-21 captain Bartol Franjić back into the squad for the remainder of the season, a player who will look to bring poise to the squad as a defensive-minded midfielder.
Despite leading the league in goals scored this season, Dinamo have also conceded a whopping 24 through only 18 matches, 10 more than Hajduk and 17 more than Rijeka. Cannavaro will likely place a heavy focus on strengthening the back line and reverting to the club’s style of controlling play through the midfield. However, for the first time in a while, Dinamo’s squad on-paper is not that much better than their competitors. Martin Baturina, Bruno Petković, Sandro Kulenović, and Petar Sučić will have to be in strong form to keep title hopes alive, as the gap can quickly widen with another couple of upset defeats. In good health, Dinamo should make a valiant push toward the top within the next few months.
Osijek & Varaždin: Combined 5% Chance to Win the HNL
There is really not much to be said here — Osijek and Varaždin would need a miracle to come out on top. However, they can provide for some tricky matchups against Hajduk, Rijeka, and Dinamo in their respective battles for the trophy.
2 more for Budimir in 3-2 win for Osasuna today….. Player of the match on both Sofascore and FOTMOB.
Wow he was playing away to Athletic, one of the best teams in La Liga. Re his first goal, I’d just like to add he won the penalty which he converted.
Great victory today from Donna here in Aus Open. Her opponent served for the match in the final set and Donna won every single game from there to win, thanked all the Croats in the crowd after the victory – good stuff. She beat #12 Schnaider btw and is now into the last 16.
Zrinka Ljutic competing at Flachau Tuesday
***.fis-ski.com/DB/general/results.html?sectorcode=AL&raceid=122810
I have a feeling Dinamo is going to win it