The Vatreni face-off against current group-leaders Czechia in Osijek tomorrow at 2:45pm EST. Croatia are coming off a strong 7-0 triumph over minnows Gibraltar, and Czechia are 3/3 in taking down every other team in the group besides Croatia; Gibraltar 4-0, Faroe Islands 2-1 and Montenegro 2-0. The Czechs are also coming off a strong Nations League campaign, topping their group consisting of Ukraine, Albania and Georgia, and are undefeated in their last eight matches. Croatiansports.com predicts Zlatko Dalić’s starting eleven to be as below.
Dalić mentioned having rested Gvardiol and Šutalo against Gibraltar, and will likely start Stanišić and DCC to complete the backline. His omission of 18 year old Luka Vušković against Gibraltar points to minimal game time (if any) for the youngster tomorrow. Dalić likely views the call-up as “slow integration” and will only play him in the next international window, unfortunately.
Luka Modrić will definitely start and expect Mario Pašalić to get the nod after his convincing performance against Gibraltar. I predict Petar Sučić to once again start in center midfield, but Dalić might also play Baturina at the CAM and move Pašalić back to the 8 or play Lovro Majer at CM again (please don’t).
Ivan Perišić will be spear-heading the attack, and a performance like last game could make the difference in this crucial match for Croatia. The guy is an absolute machine. Andrej Kramarić is a coach’s favourite and will likely start at the opposite wing. Off the bench against Gibraltar, he demonstrated his quality on the ball and notched two goals. Prolific Laliga striker Ante Budimir will be at the 9 once more, and his vision combined with Pašalić’s should hopefully result in at least one goal for the Vatreni.
As for substitutions, expect Juranović and potentially Vušković in defence. In midfield, we could see Baturina, Majer and maybe Fruk later on in the match. Hopefully Marco Pašalić’s positive cameo last game earns him some minutes on the wing, and Franjo Ivanović will definitely be replacing Budimir in the 60-70th minute of the match. Luka Sučić is out for tomorrow’s game and hopefully we get no Pongračić or Moro minutes.
With a win, Croatia can take firm command over the group. Czechia are the only real threats posed to the Vatreni and a loss here will see them take a 9-point separation above us. That said, this is a must win. What are your predictions for this crucial match?
Just get the Win
Dalic do whatever it takes 🇭🇷💪💪💪
@gvbh
These aren’t made up numbers. It is actually rather easy to do that we give it to the analysts as a test.
There are betting odds/probabilities for every remaining qualifier and we know the current standings.
Based on those probabilities for each game, you simply simulate it out in excel or any basic program 10,000 times. From there you can see the predicted probabilities for where Croatia will finish in the group. They currently have qualification odds of around 70 percent.
We can easily test the impact of the czech game by toggling Croatias win probability from 55 percent to 100 percent for this game and see what it does to the simulation —> it takes qualification odds to +90 percent.
Like wise, we can toggle the loss odds from 20 percent to 100 percent and see what it does to the simulation —>. Croatia qualification odds go to about 55 percent.
I thought it the case but was still a little surprised how impactful this game is in the models but the reason is clear. Betting markets define this group as 3 minnows and 2 contending teams, so weight on the final outcome when the two contending teams play is extreme.
Taken to the extreme, if the group was croatia, czech, and 3 jv girls teams, the entire weight of the outcome would fall on the croatia czech games.
Off the šljivovica, Sheldon.
Off the šljivovica, Sheldon.
As mentioned this is the must important game since wc22.
A win, and Croatia’s wc qualification odds move up to 90+ percent and a loss sees them drop to 55 percent. A massive swing
Glad to see luka wedding boy sucic has got his priorities straight. What kind of cousin plans a wedding on the qualifiers. Why wasnt petar also invited?
The truth2 pulls out percentage numbers from his guza and states them as fact. I sometimes wonder if he/she/they is/are Anonymous.
Game day fellas. Volim piti, volim piti ….
I agree with your starting 11 Markus, the only question is where will Kramaric play ? Kramaric is more suited on the left so I would not be surprised if we see Perisic play on the right wing.
Kovacic is a huge loss in midfield, and if we have to bring anyone into midfield I would go with Majer instead of Mario Pasalic in the starting 11 or to replace him in the second half. Toni Fruk is injured and has been ruled out days ago.
Second half if things get desperate, I would bring on Ivanovic and Marco Pasalic.
Is Luka Sucic injured ? when you say that he is out for tomorrow’s match. If he is not injured despite looking out of form, I would give him a run in the second half.
We need to be careful with set pieces and free kicks as Czechia are very strong in the air. Personally, not happy that this match is being played in Osijek and I think we should have played this match at a larger venue like Split or Zagreb.
Tough match against a physical team that runs a lot, but I’m optimistic and will predict 1 – 0 for us.
Adam Hložek is out tomorrow, and that is a bigger loss for them than Kova is for us.
There is simply no excuse for tomorrow. We have everything going for us.
The big issue with the (very likely) lineup above is whether a physically weak Krama can be effective against a strong and physical Czech squad. Krama usually gets neutralized by teams like this.
Also, Perisic hopefully has enough gas left in the tank after playing the full match against Gibraltar.
The rest of the lineup is fine…but we really need to figure out how to make our forward trident click well (and not continue to rely on Perisic constantly creating things for us).
Mart,
Agree with you that Kova is a huge loss.
I trust your judgement, so just asking . . . Assuming it is going to be a physical game as you and others indicate it will be, do you still like Majer better than Mario P in that kind of game?
Majer is just coming off that bad injury . . . I am a big Majer fan, I thought he was fantastic very early in the Bundesliga season before the injury . . But maybe Mario P is better in the air and more of a physical presence on the field right now?
I put Kramarić mainly because I don’t think Dalić doesn’t start him. Personally, I’d love to see Marco P stretch the wings and bring that intensity he brought last game. He’s scrappy and fast and good on the ball. Perisic will be dangerously whether he plays on the right or left so no worries there.
Osijek is sold out
https://hns.family/vijesti/29437/ulaznice-za-utakmicu-hrvatska-ceska-u-osijeku/
UEFA ban applies to UEFA competitive matches i.e. Nations League, Euro qualifiers, etc
WC qualifiers is FIFA
Anonymous’ shouldn’t have to repeat this more than once
Ah. That’s good to know. We need a win tomorrow, and a packed stadium will help.
That is good news.
Need a win tomorrow.
Anything less, and we need to start looking for a new coach.
Wow. I am glad we have other people in charge of the Croatian Federation. Coach Dalic deserves the chance to lead us through this qualifying phase. A tie would not be the end of the world. Unless there is a complete breakdown of the team over next couple of games, Mr Dalic deserves the chance. Viva Zlatko!
Are you hinting that our boyz won’t win playing at home in front of a wild crowd brother don’t enter the stadium man
The game is behind closed doors. There will be no wild crowd.
We have struggled these past 12 months (with Euro2024 being our worst-ever result in a tournament). We relied on a false VAR call to prevent Scotland from taking our quarterfinal spot in UNL.
The Gibraltar game was good, and it showed that all of our boys are in form (which makes it even more of an expectation of victory against the Czechs).
Injuries are not an excuse (we only have one injury) and form is not an excuse (everyone is in peak form).
Can’t come out of this with a loss. No excuses.
I saw a full stadium, what fake news are you subscribed to, CNN?
Ange is available !!!
But don’t worry
Dalic keeps saying we only have to worry about Czech
Just wait till Prosinecki takes 6 points from us and he takes the keys from Dalic
I think he should’ve been gone after the euro