The first leg of the UEFA Nations League Quarter-Finals kicks off in Split as Croatia host France. It’s been a while since our beloved Vatreni have seen the pitch, so how does Dalić balance tactics with the players’ recent form heading into this tilt? Does he stick to the three at back formation or is the experiment over? Will scorching hot Ante Budimir lead the line or does Dalić favour Kramarić?
Croatia’s biggest worry heading into this game is France’s incredibly in-form attack. The defenders will have to deal with the dominant PSG trio of Ousmane Dembélé, Bradley Barcola, and Désiré Doué, that just man-handled top of the Premier League side Liverpool, and Real Madrid’s Kylian Mbappé who broke Gvardiol’s ankles just two weeks ago. Not to mention Bayern’s shifty Michael Olise on the wing as well. The best way to deal with this overwhelming attack is to stick to what we know… which is the 4 at back. Our four best defenders at the moment are Gvardiol, Šutalo, Stanišić, and Ćaleta-Car. There is no need to complicate things or fiddle with the defensive spacing when dealing with French attackers who will exploit any given mistake.
This game is won or lost in the midfield, and especially, in transition. Modrić needs to bring his legs, and we need Kovačić’s Euro form back. The one position we still have over France is the midfield, in terms of both talent and experience. The most crucial aspect of this game will be to dictate the tempo and smoothly transition the ball from defence to the midfield, avoiding having the ball at Mbappe and Dembélé’s feet. Camavinga is very talented, and Tchouaméni is a workhorse, but Zaire-Emery has fallen out of PSG’s starting lineup and no other midfield is very threatening on their squad. Croatia need to ensure they control the tempo of this game, and the Modrić-Kovačić double-pivot has certainly done it before.
Ivan Perišić is playing like a 26-year old, not a 36-year old, with PSV, and he became the oldest player in Champion’s League history to score in both legs of a knock-out tie against Juventus. He’s been playing right-wing as well, which is perfect for us. Martin Baturina continues his solid form in the HNL and Kramarić is a lock in every Dalić line-up. I would love to see some Petar Sučić minutes, and especially first-time call-up Toni Fruk. Fruk has been dominating the HNL this season with Rijeka, and as the current best player in the league, certainly deserves a look off the bench in the first game. Expect Mario Pašalić and Nikola Vlašić to see the field as well.
After some worrisome comments from Dalić today, stating how he sees Budimir as a perfect super-sub, I will continue to stick with the third top-scorer in La Liga to start against France. Behind only Lewandowski and Mbappe, and ahead of Ballon d’Or candidate Raphinha, Budimir is firmly in the running for the Pichichi award as he’s having yet another dominant season for Osasuna. With Perišić on the right flank and Baturina being very capable of providing good service, Budimir should get his chances in this game, and I see no reason not to start him. Franjo Ivanović is enjoying a productive season in Belgium, and we could see him come on late should Budimir have trouble producing.
Dalić should line up in a 4-2-3-1 as seen below. What are your predictions for the first leg, and the entire tie? Is it better for Croatia to win and try to claim their first important international trophy, or would losing and getting the easier World Cup qualifying group be more ideal?
I told my brother before the game 2-1 za Hrvatska. I also called the Perisic goal 1 minute before it happened. I must be a mystic.
HNS posted a pic of
Gvardiol and DCC holding hands like too love birds
We got this
“he became the oldest player in Champion’s League history to score in both legs of a knock-out tie against Juventus”
LOLOL! Really reached for that one..
How?
Vida goal vs. Russia – alternative angle
Look closely – everyone celebrates like Croatia has one….
Except for one player
Luka Modric
He knew the game wasn’t over
So stayed away from the celebration and first back to centre to be ready to defend
That’s what leadership looks like
***.youtube.com/watch?v=RCruSOP3p9o
I’ve taken an intern off a project to run some analysis on this france-croatia match up as I’ve never had to actively root against croatia as a diehard domoljub but I place world cup qualification above all else as the opportunity to see Croatia play in my present home country of America and take my grandchildren easily around in the jet to watch the games would seem like an incredible experience.
So here’s the breakdown.
As expected, Croatia is more likely to make the world cup in group L although I was surprised by the lack of difference. In group d the simulation produced a 62% chance of first and 32% chance of second. In group L it produced 66% chance of first and 28% chance of second. Any time Croatia came in second, it was assumed it had a 30% chance of winning the two leg playoffs to qualify.
So out of group D Croatia had an overall 71% chance of qualifying and out of group L Croatia had a 74% chance of qualifying. Barely any difference that one could almost argue let’s take our shot at winning this Nations League and root for Croatia today.
I immediately fired the intern as these odds seem logically way to high to me. Here are the match probabilities for each game they worked off of and I just feel like Croatia’s chances to win each game are way too high, but the probability was derived by a multi-regression model using factors like ELO ratings adjusting for recency, home-away, player aging etc. But I just can’t see Croatia winning against Montenegro 84% of the time for example
Croatia vs Czechia (in Zagreb): Croatia win ~66.8%, draw ~15.7%, Czechia win ~17.5%.
Czechia vs Croatia (in Prague): Czechia win ~34.7%, draw ~23.4%, Croatia win ~41.9%.
Croatia vs Montenegro (in Zagreb): Croatia win ~84.4%, draw ~9.8%, Montenegro win ~5.8%.
Montenegro vs Croatia (in Podgorica): Montenegro win ~15.2%, draw ~14.7%, Croatia win ~70.1%.
Croatia vs Faroe Islands (in Zagreb): Croatia win ~92.4%, draw ~6.1%, Faroe Islands win ~1.6%.
Faroe Islands vs Croatia (in Tórshavn): Faroe win ~4.6%, draw ~9.0%, Croatia win ~86.4%.
Croatia vs Gibraltar (in Zagreb): Croatia win ~98.2%, draw ~1.5%, Gibraltar win ~0.3%.
Gibraltar vs Croatia (in Gibraltar): Gibraltar win ~1.0%, draw ~3.5%, Croatia win ~95.5%.
Czechia vs Montenegro (in Prague): Czechia win ~71.4%, draw ~18.8%, Montenegro win ~9.8%.
Montenegro vs Czechia (in Podgorica): Montenegro win ~12.8%, draw ~16.5%, Czechia win ~70.7%.
Czechia vs Faroe Islands (in Prague): Czechia win ~94.1%, draw ~4.9%, Faroe win ~1.0%.
Faroe Islands vs Czechia (in Tórshavn): Faroe win ~5.5%, draw ~11.4%, Czechia win ~83.1%.
Czechia vs Gibraltar (in Prague): Czechia win ~98.8%, draw ~1.1%, Gibraltar win ~0.1%.
Gibraltar vs Czechia (in Gibraltar): Gibraltar win ~1.5%, draw ~4.7%, Czechia win ~93.8%.
Montenegro vs Faroe Islands (in Podgorica): Montenegro win ~82.5%, draw ~13.1%, Faroe win ~4.4%.
Faroe Islands vs Montenegro (in Tórshavn): Faroe win ~14.4%, draw ~19.3%, Montenegro win ~66.3%.
Montenegro vs Gibraltar (in Podgorica): Montenegro win ~96.5%, draw ~3.1%, Gibraltar win ~0.4%.
Gibraltar vs Montenegro (in Gibraltar): Gibraltar win ~3.0%, draw ~7.8%, Montenegro win ~89.2%.
Faroe Islands vs Gibraltar (in Tórshavn): Faroe win ~90.0%, draw ~8.4%, Gibraltar win ~1.6%.
Gibraltar vs Faroe Islands (in Gibraltar): Gibraltar win ~10.0%, draw ~14.5%, Faroe win ~75.5%.
Wow. The truth2, maybe you should be posting some stock tips for us while you are at it. Thanks. That is a lot of work.
Based on the above, I like our chances even more than I did.
I do hope you and your grandchildren are able to see Croatia play in North America in 2026.
As long as dalic is coach izbornik unless panic mode happens the young players wont get starting 11 time imo.
And we need more b friendlies like under cacic kovac era
Id like to see b friendlies and a team like
Kotarski Stanisic Vuskovic Smolcic Hrgović Sucic Baturina Sucic Fruk Matanovic Ivanovic And also Prpic Galesic Soldo Ljubičić Crnac
I don’t wanna hear we don’t have wingers, we do. Marco pasalic should have been given a chance not every guy needs to be playing for a top club to fill a role and contribute.
He should start against France on the right, the fact dalic goes with the same lineup is incredibly disappointing. The thing I like about pasalic is he is good at tracking back so he isn’t liability. I wouldn’t have any of the old guard in my starting lineup. Time to move on, I can care less how perisic does for PSV, I’ve seen enough to know he has lost three steps and isn’t that guy any more.
When Modric plays at real there’s a bunch of fast athletes around him, same with kramaric same with perisic. So there football iq and skill can blend with the rest of athletes, now we are asking all these slow old guys to play together. You can’t have a bunch of 30 plus lineup play in a tournament where you play every 3-4 days.
I’d like to try some more young guys
……Stanisic……… Sutalo. Vuskovic…..Gvardiol
…………………Kovacic…………Sucic ……………….
Marco pasalic…………L.Sucic …………Baturina
Budimir
Perisic is not slow and is producing in a good league and at the highest level (Champions League) against Juventus and Arsenal. I’m taking that over “youth” playing in the MLS.
Vlad
💯
Re who/what age Modric and Perisic are surrounded by at club level – just look at PSV average age of squad vs Juventus or Arsenal – not sure about Krama
Highlights U21, U19 and U17 matches today
***.youtube.com/@max-sport/videos
Hard to even find details on the youth games, can someone post results of our youth games in one of these threads when they happen? Thanks. I will try watch the Aus v Cro one which i think is later today
Under21 lost 2-1 last second goal. First half Croatia played pretty well. Soticek I thought was our best player. Second half we fell off. Under 19 lost 2-1 again in the last minute after almost winning the game against the Dutch a minute before. Not many chances this game for either team. Under 17 won 2-1 pretty comfortably against Ukraine. Should have won by more as they controlled most of the game.
So even our youth teams suffer the affliction of conceding last minute goals that our senior team has unfortunately become known for.. great lol.
Thanks for the update though !
i agree with most pundits here, love to see some more youth playing in these games. Sucic cousins would be nice to see but injuries. Baturina- would love to see him run more and less with the ball. That kid is bloody fast but someone who looks so much slower with the ball. Kova , might just need a game with HNS to get the rust off. He’s not playing much so who knows. Get a bunch of Croatians together with medium level of animosity, you get medium level of play. Need some french fry to lip off and get some of the boys juiced up.
We dont have better players then the veterans at the moment reality we have talent but not star quality
I see dalic going 4 3 3 i dont think baturina will start because he doesnt defend i think vlasic pasalic is in the 11
Livi stanisic sutalo dcc Modrić Kovacic Pasalic Krama Budimir Perišić is the 11
Sure we do.
Vukušić is probably one of our top 2 defenders right now… but we’re going to have to wait for him to ‘earn his stripes’ because we have a biased coach.
Also, if the Sučić cousins were in full form, we probably sit Baturina instead of Kramarić.
Krama shouldn’t be a guaranteed starter.
I’d even give Stojković a solid 20 minutes off the bench and sub out Perišić once he gasses himself out after 70 minutes (and starts walking on the pitch). But Perišić will get his full 90, just like Modrić.
We’ll see how Dalić’s lineup goes, but even if he gets the starting eleven right…I’m not confident in his substitutions.
Is Perisic really the best option we have for right wing…
He’s tearing it up for PSV in the league, and more importantly, Champions League. So unless you have better ideas, yes.
These veteran players should have been fazed out right after the Euro’s. I don’t need to see Krama in a starting lineup anymore. Modric/Buda/Perisic should all get limited minutes.
Against the French Croatia need to play Dalic football. Generate zero scoring opportunities and play possession football with a lot of pass backs and hope for a scoreless draw. In the second game in France do the same and take it to penalties and pray.
Modric – 39
Buda – 33
Krama – 33
Perisic – 36
Kova – 30
As already mentioned
JJ played LB when Croatia beet 1-0 in Paris 2022
His club also played him LB last 2 club matches, to prepare for this France match – this is how these things work
Stanisic Sutalo Gvardiol (as CB) JJ
Recall also in the two France 2022 matches Dalic tried the failed Brekalo on the wing experience – the purpose was to have a “speedy” player – to hit France on counter / drive forward w/ some 1 vs. 1 ability – obviously Brekalo didn’t work – but your front 4 above has zero speed – so would expect Fruk or Ivanovic to actually start (neither is particularly speedy either – but upgrade on what you have) – let’s see
Also won’t be shocked if Petar Sucic gets the nod in midfield
It’s a shame we don’t have the Sucic cousins in full form for this game. They are our two best midfielders right now. Also, Luka Vuskovic should be in this lineup.
I think once we start integrating these three into the starting eleven, we’ll be good again.
But for now, it’s probably going to be the same as what we’ve been seeing. Hopefully, we can squeeze out an ugly win.
Luka and Petar need to get physically stronger. Those two are both tall, lanky and injury prone. We need them in this midfield for the next ten years.
As for Vuskovic, I agree he has the quality to start for us right now (and is probably better than current Gvardiol defensively). But I don’t him to be thrown to the wolves against France for his first cap. I value his development over this quarterfinal match-up, so let’s just wait until WC qualifiers to integrate him. If he’s still not called up at that stage, there is a problem.
Game plan has to be terrorism ball, just hold possession and defend with our lives. Try to sneak a goal over the two legs or maybe even take it to pens. The more open we play the more exposed our backline will be.
Probably same game plan as against Brazil. We have to realistic here France front line is a lot better then ours so if we are not careful they will kill us on the counter like they did in the second half of the World Cup Final.
Well, we’ve been horrible these Nations League so far, so playing Vuskovic can’t possibly make us worse (especially since we’re starting guys who don’t play first team football).
Sure, the Sucic cousins need to get stronger…but they’re still better than Modric and Krama out there for 90 minutes. Both Modric and Krama need to come off the bench.
We also need to start thinking about Stojkovic as a backup to Perisic as well. This kid has been doing well on the wing in the HNL, and is worth a callup.
I doubt Vuskovic will be called up for the World Cup qualifiers, and I doubt Stojkovic will be called up over the next two years (even if he continues to play like he has for Dinamo).
Modric and Krama will continue to start until they retire (likely after WC2026).
agreed with the proposed lineup, baturina is the logical choice and unlike the other CAMs he is an actual threat to run in behind. In defense DCC is the concern for obvious reasons. The big back four pseudo fullback tactic is solid, however this strategy works best only if you have ultra fast attacking wingers. The budimir krama combo uptop may finally be happening, albeit 4 years late.
I’d like to see Vlasic for krama early in the second half.
Having a CAM on the wings again with Baturina only being able to get in this team on the wing, this experiment has failed many times (Vlasic, Majer and Ivanusec) and Baturina and Luka Sucic are the next victims of it.
I think Markus is right. He has to stop playing individuals out of position, too many failed experiments there. There is been too much of that. Dalic hasn’t selected enough players for the wings to make this work.
There are only four selections up front, and this has been a trend for so many of the previous tournaments after 2018. We have so many selections in midfield/defense which is great but then you have very few players to fill the roles up front. Which is strange given that scoring goals has been our problem since Mandžukić left. We also have only one winger in Perišić, so I cannot see a double pivot working here.
The only reason that worked in 2018 is because he had the players that made it work. Now Dalic is pretty much refusing to experiment with the youth which is where he would have to look to make a formation like this work. Both Oršić and Pjaca are on standby, and apparently Marco Pašalić is not even on the radar again and like Biuk is off to the States which now means he won’t even get looked at by Dalic. It’s pretty ridiculous at this stage really.
So I expect Dalic to play this one safe and do a 4-3-3. He just has too many midfielders CAMs or otherwise to play this any different. The only way we win this is if our defensive line shows up.
Marco Pašalić was also on standby this time. Pjaca could have been called up to play left wing, but given how well Baturina played there in his first cap, it’s not such a bad idea. He’s fast and plays well one-on-one, so it’s better to have Baturina there than Kramarić, Pašalić or Vlašić. Another option would be to put Perišić on the left and Ivanović on the right, but Perišić has been better on the right recently, even for the vatreni
I think that Dalic has to be careful with his wording, calling Budimir a super-sub is not wise. It could wreck the players confidence.
To be fair Budimir has the most goals out of any striker that we have and he is in a top flight league. Who else does he have to play up front based on the selections he has made??
I’m scared we will see Krama at the 9 again.
I think it’s stupid to consider Budimir as anything other than a starter unless it’s for a game that could go to extra time and PKs. However, I don’t think anyone has to worry about Budimir’s confidence at this point. One reason he’s so good is that he just never gives up. He had a long goal drought at Osasuna in his first or second year there (can’t remember when he went there) and got relegated to the bench in favor of Kike Garcia, but he kept at it and for the second season in a row is in the race for the pichichi award. Budimir is a veteran and a mature person, so he will give his best no matter what his role is. But his role obviously should be as a starter and maybe even in for the full 90 minutes
Who’s the alternative though? At least Baturina has way more of an engine than Vlasic/Majer/Ivanusec. I think this is just temporary. We have one winger in the squad, and outside of Perisic, the only in-form winger right now is Stojkovic and I’d like to see him for the WC qualifiers.
There is no other alternative. Dalic already said he wants to play a possession game against France which makes Baturina a likely choice to start. We don’t have any true wingers except for Perisic who has found his form again in PSV. I agree with you about Stojkovic he has been really good for Dinamo the last few games. Although not a true winger he has pace and runs all day with a great work rate
Dalic should start by calling up wingers as the alternative hahaha.
Look whatever we think of Pjaca and Marco Pasalic they’re actual wingers and if he loves to play with wingers, it’s less harm to call them up and play them instead of throwing a CAM on the wing.
If he’s got an issue with so many Attacking Midfielders and no wingers, why would you play a 4 at the back if it requires wingers? Wouldn’t it make sense to go a 3 at the back like a 3-4-2-1?
I honestly don’t think this is temporary, this has been going on for a long time and he doesn’t look like he’s changing it anytime soon.