After a long summer of several high-profile moves and astonishing new contracts, the NBA is finally back. A possible resurgence from the Eastern Conference seems to be possible this year. Teams such as Miami, Toronto, Milwaukee have retooled their starting lineups with high-priced signings. Young teams such as Orlando and Boston could present problems as well. Here are my individual team breakdowns and predictions.
1. Cleveland Cavaliers: Other than injuries affecting the “big three”, nothing is going to slow down Cleveland. Tristan Thompson’s holdout has finally ended. That gives Cleveland another body in their crowded front court. Iman Shumpert appears to be an excellent fit at shooting guard. With LeBron James still playing at an absurd level and Kevin Love re-signing, this team will virtually be unstoppable.
2. Miami Heat: Chemistry could be an issue for a revamped Miami squad. Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade missed significant time last season. They will have to coincide with a true playmaking point guard in Goran Dragic and imposing center Hassan Whiteside. Miami hasn’t had a true point guard-center combination, since Bosh arrived in 2010. The entire starting five is filled with star talent that should compliments each other well. Pat Riley has done an excellent job retooling the roster over the past year. They look capable of going deep in the playoffs.
3. Chicago Bulls: A rookie head coach usually marks immediate cause for concern. Thankfully for Fred Hoiberg’s sake, Chicago is well equipped to reach another fifty-win season. No team has a stronger front court in the Eastern conference. Bobby Portis could end up being the steal of the draft. Pau Gasol continues to be productive, while Jimmy Butler has ascended into stardom. No longer relying on oft-injured Derrick Rose, Chicago has surrounded their roster with all-stars (Gasol, Butler) and talented prospects (Portis, Nikola Mirotic). As long as no significant drop-off occurs between Rose and Aaron Brooks, they will pose a formidable threat to any opponent.
4. Washington Wizards: Otto Porter’s development will be pivotal for Washington’s chances of making it to the Eastern Conference finals. They’ve relied on John Wall and Bradley Beal far too often in the playoffs. Porter has developed into a versatile playmaker that can defend the opposing team’s best swingman. With strong bench depth in Alan Anderson, Martell Webster, and Jared Dudley, Washington shouldn’t suffer from a lack of depth like they have in recent years. They still seem to be lack a consistent third star, as Marcin Gortat fades away in big games. That will keep them from making a substantial jump in the standings.
5. Toronto Raptors: The arrival of DeMarre Carroll and Kyle Lowry’s weight loss has brought more optimism than usual. Besides being the only good team in the Atlantic division, they actually offer more to the table this year. Carroll’s arrival gives them an excellent shooter and premier on-ball defender. Luis Scola and Bismack Biyombo gives them much-needed front court depth to compete against teams such as Miami and Chicago. While they will slightly fall in the conference standings, it has more to do with the new NBA playoff seeding structure and Miami’s improvement.
6. Atlanta Hawks: Minimal improvement in the off-season and no rising stars except Jeff Teague will cause Atlanta’s decline. Re-signing Paul Millsap will keep them afloat, as he was their best player last season. Al Horford is always an injury concern, while Teague was far too streaky as a shooter. It’s difficult to see Kyle Korver matching last year’s production. The bench doesn’t provide much upside besides inconsistent point guard Dennis Schroder. A tumble from being contenders to another playoff team is imminent.
7. Milwaukee Bucks: Jason Kidd’s squad is one year away from pushing for a top-four seed. They still don’t have a true number one scorer or much depth on their roster. The starting five is filled with athleticism led by Giannis Antetokounmpo. Kidd will have the opportunity to reshuffle his lineup around frequently. Teams will have to avoid playing small ball, as Greg Monroe and John Henson can cause major problems with their range and ability to spread the floor. If they can add one more shooter, they could potentially be a top five seed. There are still too many flaws for me to entrust this team as more than a seventh seed.
8. Boston Celtics: Similar to Milwaukee, Boston plays at their best through a smaller lineup. Whether Jae Crowder is playing at power forward or Avery Bradley-Marcus Smart-Isaiah Thomas are playing at the same time, Boston can create several matchup problems to make up for a lack of star talent. They still lack a true number one scorer, as forgotten man Evan Turner stepped up to solidify Boston’s place in the playoffs. David Lee and Amir Johnson are quality signings that will give them much-needed front court depth. For the second consecutive year, Boston will narrowly make the playoffs.
9. Orlando Magic: An aggressive no-nonsense coach with a young team should be an interesting combination. Orlando’s youth will be tested by Scott Skiles to improve defensively and learn to finish games. Nikola Vucevic is the oldest player in their expected starting lineup at 24 years old. They have unlimited upside with Victor Oladipo being the embodiment of consistency and Elfrid Payton developing into one of the more versatile point guards in the league. How Skiles incorporates Mario Hezonja into his rotation will be essential, as their bench isn’t very deep. They will compete for the final seed, but ultimately fall short. It’s difficult to pick an untested young team lacking depth over a battle-tested team filled with depth.
10. Indiana Pacers: After years of imposing their will in the paint, Indiana’s offense will flow through two surefire scorers. Monta Ellis has been added to provide a much-needed scoring threat. Indiana was ranked 24th in scoring last year at 97 points a game. Paul George will certainly be depended on, but Indiana needs other players to step up. Frank Vogel did a masterful job of winning 38 games with an offensive-deficient rotation. Without any low-post scorers and David West’s leadership, Indiana won’t be good enough defensively to make up for their lack of scorers behind George and Ellis.
11. Charlotte Bobcats: With Michael Kidd-Gilchrist likely out for the season, Charlotte falls down two places. Nicolas Batum isn’t capable of making up for Kidd-Gilchrist’s ability to create off the dribble. Charlotte will continue to lack capable scorers on the wing. The insertion of Batum will be a massive defensive upgrade, but the front court is still soft. Al Jefferson was never a good defender to go along with nagging injuries. Cody Zeller and Spencer Hawes tend to get overwhelmed inside the paint. Frank Kaminsky’s impressive arsenal doesn’t come with interior defense or speed. After what seemed to be a team on the rise last season, Charlotte will continue to suffer from poor free-agent decisions (Lance Stephenson) and drafts (Zeller).
12. Brooklyn Nets: Similar to Charlotte, Brooklyn has failed to evolve. That isn’t an indictment on Lionel Hollins, as the front office has made several poor decisions over the past three years. With Deron Williams being the latest casualty of Brooklyn’s fire sale of bad contracts, they have far too issues to make the playoffs. Brook Lopez has missed significant time during two of the last four seasons. Joe Johnson, Jarrett Jack, and Thaddeus Young are better suited as role players rather than main scoring outlets. Bojan Bogdanovic appears to be their only young player that will contribute this season. It’s going to be a long year in Brooklyn.
13. New York Knicks: It can’t get much worse than last year. With an infusion of exciting rookies (Kristaps Porzingis, Jerian Grant) and solid veterans (Aaron Afflalo, Robin Lopez), the Knicks have built solid pieces for their rebuilding process. The roster still lacks quality scorers and depth. Afflalo is better suited as the fourth scoring option on a winning team rather than second scoring option on a rebuilding team. With no major big free-agent signing and Porzingis being a long-term project, it’s hard to see them winning more than 30 games. Carmelo Anthony will have to be patient with Derek Fisher and Phil Jackson.
14. Detroit Pistons: Another team that will be rebuilding for the next two years. The idea of playing Greg Monroe and Josh Smith together turned out to be a colossal disaster. Both players have left the team, which leaves Andre Drummond as the lone star big man left. The roster is filled with limited players (Jodie Meeks, Anthony Tolliver) and veterans (Ersan Ilyasova, Marcus Morris) that are better suited as bench players. Brandon Jennings could possibly miss half of the season. Reggie Jackson and Stanley Johnson will need to develop into players to build around. Another lottery pick will help this team build for the future. It will be interesting to see how Stan Van Gundy handles this situation. After coaching outstanding teams in Miami and Orlando, he has a difficult task on his hand with a limited roster.
15. Philadelphia 76ers: It’s shocking to see Philadelphia not address their issues in the backcourt. While D’Angelo Russell didn’t fall to them, they should have signed a veteran point guard. Isaiah Cannan will have the daunting task of playing point guard for a team lacking scoring options. The massive front-court of Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor will need to gel immediately. Noel should make up for Okafor’s defensive shortcomings, but the blue-chip prospect from Duke may struggle adjusting to a much faster league. He faded away in far too many games last season for Duke. His development will be crucial to generate interest for an ominous franchise. Another year of waiting for the lottery seems probable.
Playoffs
1. Cleveland over 8. Boston in four
4. Washington over 5. Toronto in six
3. Chicago over 6. Atlanta in four
2. Miami over 7. Milwaukee in six
1. Cleveland over 4. Washington in six
2. Miami over 3. Chicago in seven
1. Cleveland over 2. Miami in five
Twitter: @Allen_Strk
If Hezonja receives a consistent 25 mpg in the first half of this season, I can see him heating up and taking major strides in his rookie year.
Still, once Tobias Harris was re-signed to that big money deal, it pretty much ensured that Hezonja will be relegated to that sixth man role at best (at least for his rookie year). But anything can happen, and he will consistently be in the top-10 in those weekly Rookie Power Rankings on NBA.com.
Time will tell…as well as 15/1 odds.
I cant see Hezonja getting enough touches to rookie of the year. Towns or Okafor will get much more and have bigger, bloated numbers.
I would have said D’Angelo Russell might be in that mix, but I don’t see him with these guys based on one game with Lakers. They had him playing off the ball. And that is not his game.
My Bulls are at 2-0 beating the Cavs and Nets. Looking good so far. In the local game, the Dubs and Curry looking phenomenal.
Curry will be the MVP and Hezonja will be the rookie of the year. I got 15/1 odds on Hezonja. Easy $100 bet.
@ soul champ
you are correct. free throw rate will be the huge impediment to hezonja being a potentially great player. it was the big analytics red flag on him coming into the draft…his free throw rate was shocking low
and ultimately, that is the difference between james harden and jr smith
Boston definitely will finish higher than my beloved Knicks.
I’m living in New England now and trying to become a Celtics fan. First game was sloppy last night vs. the 76’ers. Really like Sullinger and Crowder. Obviously Smart and Isaiah Jr. can take over a game, but I think Boston will finish some place between 6-8.
If the Knicks avoid key injuries and really get the best out of all these new pieces, I can see them sneaking in at #8 and then promptly getting swept by Chicago/Cleveland in the first round.
Need to watch the Hezonja highlights this morning.
His man Porter is a scrub, no need to sub off Hezonja for him.
He seems to lack awareness as to when to attack the mid range area going to the rim.
After his big 3 pointer he go Gortat on a switch, he then pulled up for a quick contested long 2 air ball.
Right there he should off taken Gortat to the rack or at least get a relaxed open look.
Then next play he dribbled off his body out of bounds.
All in all it was a solid debut.
I just think at 6’8″ he needs to attack the defense and live at the free throw line.
Even in Europe you can tell he still needs to settle into his body and improve his one on one attack dribble. He has the physical talent to do it.
OKC next on his welcome to the NBA.
assuming he plays for the repka, i think we’re going to be very happy about what hezonja can bring to it over time.
if saric develops a jump shot and bender turns out to be what he looks like….possible return to glory days?
right now, 3 of the best 4 young european prospects are croatian…good sign for the future
Two airballs was a bit disappointing, but Hezonja played heavy minutes and even forced a turnover. You can tell Orlando is an extremely young team by their awful shot selection late on. Too many isolation plays for Oladipo and Payton. They have so much young talent, but haven’t quite gelled as a team. Skiles will need to teach them asap. Promising stuff all around though.
Totally forgot about Boston……good catch.
Decent opening for Hezonja. Too many turnovers, but that is to be expected. What did surprise – and a welcomed surprise – is that Skiles kept him in late on defense. You usually see coaches make defensive substitutions late in games, but he kept in Hezonja. Which was good to see.
Ziva is spot on. Eastern conference is wide open for the eighth seed. Too much uncertainty with the Knicks. Who is going to score besides Melo and Afflalo? They have just a bunch of guys.
Boston’s depth really sets them apart from the pack. That really counts to make that big push in March and April. Also a big believer in Stevens, as most people are.
@Ziva
You’re missing Boston. No stars on that team, but still pretty young and they have arguably the best coach in the Eastern Conference in Brad Stevens.
They made the playoffs last year, am I don’t think they will drop off too much. They retained all their key players, their younger players should be better this year, and they signed some solid frontcourt veterans in Amir Johnson and David Lee.
Knicks only make the playoffs if one of these eight playoff teams experiences a major down season or has multiple injuries.
Problem for the Knicks is that there are plenty of other fringe playoff teams in the East (Indiana, Detroit, Charlotte) that could very easily jump ahead of the Knicks as well.
Hezonja has way more game then I thought.
Barca really trained him well offensively.
Skiles will have him on a defensive intensity leash.
If you slack on D then you sit next to me.
Hezonja is 6’8″!!!!!
Armed with a gun and an explosive first step and hammer time at the rim.
Plus he does not need to create too much for himself with athletic guards to run with.
His playmaking passing is well beyond what I expected.
He generally passes when the play opens up for teammates.
That “Kobe ” of Europe thing was over hyped.
Can you imagine how I feel that my 7 year old son can watch Hezonja ball out in the NBA.
Stereo type LIFT!
hezonja rookie of the year odds are 14/1
not saying he’s winning it, but i think there is a lot of promise here
i’m thinking his time at barcelona playing with older guys where he had to come off the bench and be a role player should actually help his transition a lot
it’s tough for a lot of guys who come from being the star to suddenly being expected to come in cold and contribute in a roll…he should be familiar with the process
Teams I think are clearly better than the Knicks………….Cavs, Bulls, Heat, Bucks, Hawks, Wizards, Raptors………I guess they could be the 8th seed. Who am I missing???? Pacers if George is healthy. Anyone else. Magic are too young, right?
Good stuff Allen. I agree Cavs will take the East again. Today, Chuck said that the Knicks would make the playoffs. Whatcha think about that?
no golden state repeat?
That’s no way he’s a Hrvat… https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Thibodeau
Nice write up.
U should put $5 on those playoff predictions.