NBA Western Conference Preview

Allen Strk picks the West (in predicted order of finish)

1.San Antonio Spurs: I’ve been anticipating their decline for about four years now. Eventually age catches up to players and their decline is imminent. Instead the Spurs are a well-oiled machine that is the epitome of consistency. They don’t need high-profile superstars to create a championship team. Tony Parker is injured for a few weeks; you’ll see Patty Mills step up and do a tremendous job. Manu Ginobili gets injured for the fifth time in the same season; you’ll see Danny Green or Marco Belinelli pick up the scoring slack. For a team to earn home court advantage, consistency is the most essential thing to have. Out of all the great teams in the Western conference, no team is better all-around than San Antonio.

2. Los Angeles Clippers: A team that tends to be streaky isn’t always the safest pick to end up as the second seed. We’ve seen the Clippers look like an offensive juggernaut at their best. At their worst, they turn the ball over frequently and Blake Griffin becomes somewhat of an afterthought. What excites me about this Clippers team is the addition of Spencer Hawes. In this offense, he can become a valuable weapon with his outside shooting. No point guard is better in utilizing the pick-and-roll than Chris Paul. With Paul’s playmaking ability, Hawes joins J.J Redick and Jamal Crawford in the rotation of lethal shooters. I’m still concerned about their ability to play championship level defense, but this team is too talented to not ascend to a higher seed.

3. Golden State Warriors: They will benefit from another team’s loss to sneak into the third seed. It’s hard to fully trust them, given that a key player seems to get injured every year. Andrew Bogut is consistently injured on a yearly basis, while David Lee struggled with back issues. Besides their frontcourt struggling with injuries, this was a team that nearly knocked off the Clippers last season. The main reason for that was because of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson becoming the best backcourt in basketball. Andre Iguodala has filled the void in needing an efficient on the ball defender. If this team can stay healthy, they are going to rise up in the standings. The starting lineup features a superstar, multiple stars, and solid veterans. The signing of Shaun Livingston will do wonders for them, when they want to play small ball. He’s another playmaker that doesn’t need to score to make an impact.

4. Oklahoma City Thunder: A fall in the standings was bound to happen. Kevin Durant missing 20-25 games is a significant blow towards getting home court advantage. It will likely take time for Durant to get back into the groove as well. That leaves Russell Westbrook in position to operate the offense. This is somewhat of a judgment year for Westbrook, as he’s struggled with injuries and being erratic over the past few seasons. Can he make his teammates around him better? He’ll need to throughout the difficult stretch without Durant. They’ll need major contributions from young talented players like Reggie Jackson and Steven Adams as well. I’m not going to completely write them off in making it to the NBA finals, but their win total will certainly decrease.

5. Portland Trail Blazers: They didn’t lose any significant players, while adding a solid center in Chris Kaman. Those facts alone make me optimistic that Portland will remain a playoff team. Their still shaky defensively and tend to play too one-dimensional. As impressive as Damian Lillard looked in the playoffs, his shot selection needs to improve. There was a lot of luck behind his circus shots against Houston with their poor execution late in games. When it came to playing San Antonio, he was harassed the entire series. If Lillard can form a better partnership with LaMarcus Aldridge, they’ll be more efficient offensively. This team is still relatively young, so major expectations shouldn’t be placed on them yet. I’d like to see them play more as a team and utilize Nicholas Batum better. He’s quietly one of the best all-around players in the league.

6. Houston Rockets: Houston needs to start playing better defense. Until they make it more of an objective to play better defense, this team will continue to underachieve. The dynamic duo of James Harden and Dwight Howard can put up obscene numbers. In such a stacked conference full of talented teams, the ability to play tight defense is essential. Trevor Ariza is a slight upgrade over Chandler Parsons in the defensive department. Still they lose a better all-around offensive player from that departure. No other additions were made towards having a better bench or even better defenders. They put all their stock into landing Chris Bosh and it failed to work out. My expectations for them remain limited, as there isn’t much of a difference from last season’s team. It’s hard to see James Harden start to care about playing defense or Terrence Jones not getting torched by opposing power forwards.

7. Dallas Mavericks: The roster still looks relatively old, but they had a productive off-season. Chandler Parsons has an opportunity to show his all-around game more. With Dirk Nowitzki starting to get older and Monta Ellis in his prime, they needed another major scoring option. Then they added one of the top defensive centers in Tyson Chandler, who gives them a much-needed defensive presence in the paint. The point guard position is an obvious concern with two castaways competing for the job in Jameer Nelson and Raymond Felton. It’s somewhat comical that the two most out of shape point guards are now competing for a starting position. Still Dallas is too talented to miss out on the playoffs. Rick Carlise is an excellent coach that knows how to get the best out of veterans.

8. Memphis Grizzlies: When games start getting more intense for playoff spots in April, defense and size will overcome an explosive team. We saw that last season, when Memphis defeated Phoenix in an elimination game. Nothing has really changed to make me feel differently. It would have been nice to see Memphis more aggressive in the off-season. Even though Vince Carter had somewhat of a resurgent season last year, it’s hard to label that as an impact signing. I’m excited to see what rookies Jordan Adams and Jarnell Stokes can do. Both were the main stars on teams that made it into the Sweet 16 in UCLA and Tennessee. Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph will continue to cause several matchup problems for opposing teams. Besides that, a stingy defense will keep Memphis in the playoffs.

9. Phoenix Suns: As exciting as their style is, I’m not convinced that they can overtake Memphis for that last spot. Isaiah Thomas can clearly be a difference maker, but where does he fit in the lineup? Can Phoenix actually operate with him, Eric Bledsoe, and Goran Dragic on the court? I have my doubts, especially against athletic teams with size. The ball movement and fast break offense should be incredible to watch. That doesn’t mean they can beat teams that will force them to play at a half court pace. The Morris twins are solid players, but have never been good defenders. Alex Len didn’t look NBA ready in his limited minutes last year. Unless he progresses in a significant way, Phoenix won’t get over the hump against a resilient team like Memphis.

10. Denver Nuggets: Another exciting team that would probably make the playoffs in the Eastern conference. The return of Danilo Gallinari should be fascinating to watch. He was really becoming a complete player before his freak injury. His ability to drive to the basket and be more of a playmaker really made a difference for them. Ty Lawson and Kenneth Faried are extremely underrated, when you begin to rank the top players at their respective positions. Similar to Gallinari, the team’s playoff chances ride on Lawson’s health. Lawson hasn’t played 80 games since the 2010-2011 season. That has to change for Denver to be successful. The potential of JaVale McGee and return of Aaron Affalo are intriguing pieces that can make Denver even more dynamic. When two of your top three players are injury prone though, it’s hard for me to believe in them. That’s what leaves Denver on the outside looking in.

11. New Orleans Pelicans: They’ll be one of the more improved teams this year. Jrue Holiday and Ryan Anderson being injured hampered them last season. While Anderson is fairly one-dimensional, he’s still a terrific outside shooter for a big man. Any team will accept that unique quality in an instant. The addition of Omer Asik gives them a competent center for the first time in years. That should free up future superstar Anthony Davis to be more aggressive on both ends of the court. This is truly a talented roster, but the lack of chemistry will be an issue early on. How Tyreke Evans will be used is something that needs to be figured out quickly. It wouldn’t be surprising if he were eventually traded. He isn’t very good at playing without the ball, which doesn’t bode well for him in this offense. They seem to be a year away from truly competing for a playoff spot. New Orleans fans should be excited about their team’s future.

12. Los Angeles Lakers: If Kobe Bryant gets injured or decides to quit on the team; they have arguably the worst roster in the league. This is a risky pick, but I do think Bryant will lead them to a somewhat respectable record given the circumstances. Julius Randle is going to be one of the true stars from the 2014 draft. He’s a more athletic version of Zach Randolph that includes a much better work ethic. I’m still unsure of why they bothered signing Carlos Boozer. Randle is ready to play significant minutes now. Besides that, this roster is full of former draft busts. Jordan Hill, Ed Davis, and Wesley Johnson are decent rotational players at best. Xavier Henry was sensational at times for Kansas, yet that hasn’t translated to any success in the NBA. The Lakers are in a complete rebuilding stage. The return of Bryant doesn’t change that in any way. It’s not like he’s ever made players around him better.

13. Minnesota Timberwolves: Another exciting team that has loads of upside. That was expected, when they traded away the face of their franchise in Kevin Love. Andrew Wiggins enters a calm environment, where expectations aren’t going to be too high. That can only mean positive things for a player with so much potential. He’s expected to start the season on the bench, but I assume he’ll play his way into the starting lineup. Kevin Martin will likely be traded to a contender in need of outside shooting at some point. They need to give Wiggins, Zach LaVine, Anthony Bennett and Shabazz Muhammad endless opportunities to prove themselves. Of course, this team will struggle especially with an extremely undersized frontcourt. Thaddeus Young at power forward in the Western conference is a scary proposition. He can’t be guarding the likes of Griffin, Aldridge, and Duncan. This team is a poor man’s version of the Pelicans without a budding superstar.

14. Sacramento Kings: Some analysts have Sacramento slightly improving. I’m struggling to figure that out, especially with the loss of Isaiah Thomas. Don’t let the stats fool you into believing that Rudy Gay is a difference maker. He’ll always be a complimentary player in the mold of Andre Iguodala. I’m still skeptical of the belief that DaMarcus Cousins is capable of being the face of the franchise. He gets frustrated far too easily when things aren’t going his way. The overall depth of their roster isn’t really impressive either. Nik Stauskas should be able to produce immediately, but he plays the same position as their first round pick from last year in Ben McLemore. The direction of this team remains unclear. What will be clear is another top eight pick at minimum in 2015.

15. Utah Jazz: Another team that lacks direction in a significant way. I’ll never understand why teams would draft a player at the same position that they addressed with their first round pick from last season. Dante Exum could be a special player, but his play is very similar to Trey Burke. Will Utah’s plan be to form a backcourt featuring both players in the starting lineup? I’ve only seen limited footage of Exum, but he seems to be a player that needs the ball in his hands to be effective. We’ve already seen how much Burke likes to dribble and try to control the pace of the game going back to his college days in Michigan. That’s the only interesting thing about Utah this year. Otherwise, it’s a roster full of youth that doesn’t have much upside. Derrick Favors still remains limited offensively. Gordon Hayward was vastly overpaid for being mildly productive on a team with limited offensive weapons. This team isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, unless something drastically changes from the likes of Favors, Burke, and Enes Kanter.

Twitter: @Allen_Strk