After last month’s absolute disaster, where Croatia gained zero points from matches against Turkey and Wales, we all now know that our beloved Vatreni no longer control their own destiny to qualify for Euro 2024 through their current qualifying group. (Yes, they can qualify through a Nations League playoff in March but let’s take that out of the equation for now.)
Turkey have already qualified and Wales will follow them with 6 points this week. Wales travel to Armenia before hosting Turkey on the last match day. However, as I stated last month, I just don’t see Wales winning both matches: PSA: Wales Will Not Pick Up 6 Points In November
If they don’t pick up all 6 points AND Croatia win both of their games this week (vs. Latvia and Armenia), Modrić and company will automatically qualify for Euro 2024 next summer in Germany.
So with that said, what chances do you give Wales to beat both Armenia and Turkey this week, with both nations needing wins to better their situations in qualifying? Remember, even though Turkey have qualified, winning this match against Wales will put them in a better pot during the draw.
Chances Wales wins both games: 25%
Fun fact
In Perisic’s first 26+ games for us – he only scored 1 goal
Out of his 33 total goals – 8 were scored during Friendlies
Today we speak about him as we can’t live w/out him
Point being
We need to give young players time to make an impact
Every time a new young player gets 10 minutes on the pitch – and doesn’t score – we are way too hard on them
Imagine if we said that about Perisic after his first 5 or 10 or 15 or 20 or 25 games – when he only scored 1 goal
Slovenia loss to Denmark today 2-1. They had one shot on goal compared to Denmark’s 8. Denmark controlled the ball 65% of the time. Kazakstan is their next opponent, and a must win game, no push over. Kekic group although very tall, fell very short.
I have identified Slovenia’s main problem. They are playing Slovene players. Need to start playing Brazilian and Cameroon players to be successful.
Send the Slovenians back to the Carpathian Mountains to where they can from and sell all the Slovenia land to some foreigners who can play a mean soccer game. NOT!
Italy beats Macedonia. They only need a draw against Ukraine to qualify.
Poland and Czech draw, which means that Moldova can actually qualify directly if they beat Czech in their final match (but it’s more likely that Czech ends up qualifying).
Poland will end up in the playoffs as the team we have to beat (assuming we screw up and Italy don’t).
Moldova actually only needs to tie their last game to leapfrog Poland, if that even means anything with the back door Nations League route.
It doesn’t matter.
Poland is a League A team and has a spot reserved for them in the playoffs even if they finished last in their current qualifying group.
Same goes for us.
Whether we finish third or last in our group right now, we have that playoff spot reserved in case we screw up.
The Champions League is the inspiration for the NBA “in season tournament”, but it’s just NBA teams playing each other again. I don’t get it?
The NHL sent two teams to play each other in back to back games in Sweden. It’s not American football, Europeans do play basketball and hockey and I’m fairly certain those sports have their own Champions League version whereby the top teams from all the various different leagues play against each other in a separate tournament from their domestic leagues, so why doesn’t the NHL and NBA just send their top teams to participate in those tournaments? Wouldn’t that be much more interesting?
NHL has four teams over there. Yesterday was Detroit-Ottawa, today Detroit-Toronto. Minnesota is involved Saturday and Sunday.
Italy 3 – 0 up and cruising at HT against Macedonia. They will need a draw in 3 day’s time against Ukraine to qualify directly for the EURO.
Poland and Czech 1 – 1 with 30 minutes to go. Poland needs to win to have any chance of qualifying.
I’ve seen a couple clips of Marco pasalic interviews and kid looks confident and humble
Was talking about he will have an M. Pasalic and confirmed they aren’t related
But ya anyways maybe he is great or not is one thing. But you can see he is very proud to wear the checkers
This is important
This is the little extra we get from the guys who are average and take their possibly to another level for the repka
It’s not a Croatian qualifying campaign if it’s not messy
We are still very much in this and let’s hope for a turnaround from last month
All good teams even apparently “lucky” ones screw up
Bit ćemo ok dečki!
just check chat gpt. There isn’t any trolling going on here maminjo. Just the product of something that has read the internet 100x over and has the iq of einstein. ChatGPT
“Nikola Tesla, the famous inventor and electrical engineer, was born in 1856 in Smiljan, which at the time was part of the Austrian Empire and is now in modern-day Croatia. Tesla was of Serbian descent; his family was Serbian and belonged to the Serbian Orthodox Church. His father was a priest in the church.
Tesla’s ethnic identity is sometimes a subject of discussion because he was born in what is now Croatia and lived and worked in various countries, including the United States. However, he identified himself as a Serb. His legacy is celebrated in both Serbia and Croatia, as well as internationally, due to his significant contributions to the field of electrical engineering and his many inventions.”
Some may say he was the true definition of alternating 3 phase power. Austria-Serbia-Croatia, and Thomas Edison was single phase.
Ah.
The Serbian troll (posting under the names of ivo, sime, and branko) is doing a good job.
I agree. It’s most important where your heart lies. There has been the debate for ages of whether Tesla was Croatian or Serbian. Despite him being born in what is today Croatia, the evidence is pretty clear that he was of Serbian heritage but most importantly he identified as Serbian and therefore that is what he was. In general, society nowadays has become a lot better at realizing people are what they identify as rather simply what they were allegedly born as.
Except he didn’t identify as Serb any more than he identified as Croat, and despite his dad being an Orthodox priest he rejected that religion.
His last name is Vlah (or Morlach) and they were spread across Lika, Dalmacija and Hercegovina.
They are Slavs who adopted the local religion (be it Catholic or Orthodox) and became either Croat or Serb because of that.
@ sime
I think you’re being overly dramatic. And also, it’s known that Modric is not full serbian. It’s just one of his grandparents that comes from the Novisad area. Also, more important is what one feels in their heart and Modric always felt Croatian. It’s similar with Drazen Petrovic coming from serbian ancenstry but loving Croatia, we don’t call him Serbian. In the same way, Djokovic has a Croatian mother, but we do call him Serbian. It’s more about where your heart is than the DNA thats in the blood running through it.
I feel Djokovic publicly says he identifies as Serbian, out of social necessity. He has a great affinity for the Croatian people, and his grandfather, who has 100% Croatian identity, even though he lived in Serbia, had a daughter in Serbia. In the end, most have to find a way to make thru this world, without someone wanting to kill them, if you are not “full bloodied”, and are forced to create some kind of Mosa-ich identity unique to them.
Men and women like to get married based on sexual attraction, as well as monetary wealth mobility for women, even more so these days than familial and religious communal connections. People go their own ways for financial benefit, as Croatian people know better than anyone.
Most are all Fiddlers on the roof, they bite the apple and leave the garden of Eden, but vacation there every July.
I think the big issue lately is croatia has not been able to rely on the players with ethnic ties to other areas like serbia, italy or brazil as a production line as much. For a while, Croatians with serbian heritage like prso, prosinecki, modric, srna, mandzukic really lifted the level of the team. Additionally guys with Italian background like Josko Gvardiolo, josip sutalo, marcelo brozovicio also show their value . Brazilians like da Silva. Now we’re left with just the croatians and we’re struggling with the outside infusion.
you’re a waste of space.
Winning at all cost, that is idea of merit. You have a point, but here is another perspective to ponder:
What is the meaning of the game if the team is not a home, built by your people with some historical ties. The team should be the Dom ljude od kamena. If we want results let’s all become fans of France. I rather watch Slovenia do the best they can, with their own people, all 1 million man strong.
I hope Croatia takes the same route, I don’t worry about the result, I watch them, like you would watch your children playing AYSO and wish for the best. Winning is secondary in my book. Surviving is the victory, with your own set of eyes looking back at you, with tears running down the face in defeat, but ready for future action with hope and pride. Magnet all of your children’s drawings on the refrigerator and be proud.
Hopefully the last two games were a bump in the road.
The Slovene Striker ExpreŠŠ, Benjamin Šesko i Andraž Šporar take on Denmark, who are ranked 19th currently. This is a big game for the Kekic team. I think Slovenia is ranked in the 50’s, but are tied with Denmark, but lead the group by goals by one. There first game ended in a tie. Gremo!
I still have a bad feeling about the next two games. The Armenians can definitely pull an upset win against Wales which would alleviate the pressure for us in the last game against them. However, a win for Wales would really fuck us over. Wales would then have to win against Turkey if we want first or draw them if we want second. I doubt that will happen. Wales have already lost a game to Turkey so even two wins wouldn’t secure first place even if there is a three way tie.
Best outcome
Croatia beat Latvia and Armenia
Armenia draw or beat Wales
Turkey losses to Wales.
Realistic scenario
Croatia beat Latvia and Armenia
Wales beat Armenia
Turkey beat Wales
The win for Wales against Turkey would secure a first place for us if we have a superior goal difference, would it not? I think turkey losing to Wales is highly unlikely even though it’s in Cardiff. Turkey will have more rest and advantage with Wales playing two difficult teams within a span of 4 days. This is a position we really fucked ourselves. I just hope Turkey do us a favour if Wales beat Armenia. Hungary and Slovakia have qualified, but not us. Štrasno…
Any rumours for the lineup for the next two matches? Start Budimir for Christ sakes. He has 5 goals in the last four games.
If Wales loses to Armenia, but then beats Turkey…we finish first place (assuming we win both our games).
If Wales wins against Armenia, but loses or draws Turkey…we finish second behind Turkey.
In a three-way tie scenario (where Wales wins both games) we end up in third because we lose on the head-to-head records between the three teams.
This is why we cannot have Wales win both games. They need to lose points in either of the two games for us to get ahead of them.
To be honest, I am not too concerned about this month’s round of games. Our destiny isn’t in our hands for this qualification group. We could play amazingly well, and Wales could win both games and we still end up in the playoffs no matter what.
I am more concerned about having to face off against Italy in a playoff and would prefer Italy win over Macedonia today.
I am pretty confident we can take out Estonia and Poland in a playoff (especially if we are at full strength and everyone can get back into form), but I would hate to have to play Italy in a playoff.
Even though we have Italy’s number, I don’t think UEFA would allow Italy to miss THREE tournaments in such a short span, plus they are the defending Euro champs. I think there will be some referee bias there.
Expanding on what Maminjo said below…
If we and the Welsh are both on 13 points after the next round of games, this means that Turkey would have to take the Wales game quite seriously because them losing to Wales and us beating Armenia on the final day would result in a 3-way tie that sees Turkey drop to 2nd place which almost certainly means they drop to a lower pot for the EURO draw.
Oops, I didn’t know Maminjo has brilliantly explained everything in a later post… I was actually expanding on his earlier comment in the link below:
https://croatiansports.com/chances-wales-win-both-games-this-week-25/#comments/501066
Maminjo is part of the delusional guys here..
he doesn’t agree that we are lucky so far `
but I think he has come to realize
that Dalic is complete crap!
for counting on luck
If Turkey draws or wins against Wales, they clinch a Pot 2 seeding (with a small chance at finishing Pot 1).
However, if they lose, they drop to Pot 3 and might even drop to Pot 4 in the seedings.
Since Croatia, Wales, and Turkey lost so many points to one another…the runner up in our group cannot finish Pot 2 (due to all the lost points) and can even fall from Pot 3 to Pot 4 since there are a lot of strong runner up teams with a lot of points.
There are at least four runner up teams that are pretty much guaranteed to finish with 16 or more points (Austria, Denmark, Scotland, Serbia). If any three of Netherlands (12), Slovakia (13), Ukraine (13), Czech (11) or Romania (10) win out and finish with 16+ points…then whoever finishes second in our group will likely be dumped to Pot 4 (which would likely end up becoming the Group of Death in the Euros).
Lots of incentive for Turkey to avoid a loss in Wales, that’s for sure.
With Kova not playing we win both and Turkey plays a draw with Wales we go through.
I’d say the probabilities are higher than 25per cent on the basis that the Welsh would give it their all and you can’t trust the Turks and the Armenians
Wales “giving it their all” could backfire.
Turkey’s Italian coach looks to be a good tactician and would exploit them on the counter if Wales is playing too open and trying to attack.
Dalic isn’t a tactician and didn’t know how to react to Wales’ aggressive play. Turkey’s coach will do better than Dalic.
Also, as good as Wales suddenly looks…they are riding a two-game win streak against us and their PK-win against Latvia.
Not sure if they have it in them to pull off another two wins in a row. They will need some luck in these games against Armenia and Turkey, just as they did in the games against us and Latvia.
In my opinion Wales will beat Armenia away and has a good chance of beating Turkey at home. The only negative for Wales is that they have to travel to Yerevan and back again to Cardiff. This is approximately 4,000 km and 4 hours difference in time. This is the main reason why I think that Turkey has a chance of possibly getting a result in Cardiff despite playing a friendly against Germany on the same day as Wales play Armenia.
I hope I’m wrong, but the chances of Wales winning both matches are 75%.
Hard to say.
Wales lost to both Armenia and Turkey the first time.
The are on a two-game win streak after starting the campaign poorly, and are looking to win four in a row to close out their campaign.
You could argue that they now have momentum to do it, but these things change from month to month.
Wales losing to Armenia then beating Turkey would be hilarious.
Turkey has no incentive to go for a win against Wales.
They absolutely have incentive to win or even draw.
Losing to Wales puts them in a lower pot for the Euros.
I was actually trying to figure this one out myself. Thanks for clarifying Maminjo. Its good to know that Turkey still have reason to go for a good result in that last match with Wales.
I think if Wales beats Armenia, a win against Turkey would give them first place. Turkey will definitely want to win that if that is the case.
Even if Wales loses to Armenia, then Turkey still has motivation to get at least a draw…because we can leapfrog Turkey for first place if we win our games.