So what are we hoping for Saturday in the two Group L finales when Croatia take on Ghana and England face Panama?
Well, first off, there is a 25% chance Croatia automatically qualifies for the Round of 32 as a best 3rd-place team should some results go their way Friday. However, that’s too complicated to talk about right now so let’s revisit the conversation Friday night after those games conclude.
Along with playing Marco Pašalić exclusively on the right wing, I have one more cross to die on this World Cup. Dalić and company MUST figure out a way to safely finish 3rd in group AND qualify for the knockout round. 3rd position would allow Croatia the best path the rest of the World Cup and that’s all I care about. I will always take an easier path to give our beloved Vatreni the chance to play the most amount of games. I know that sounds strange but hear me out.
Croatia finish 3rd: The Vatreni would be guaranteed to play the R32 match in Kansas City against the Group K winner. That will either be Colombia or Portugal. I’ll take Colombia here as they only need a draw in the group finale vs. Portugal to take top spot. If we can bag a win in KC, Croatia would then play the winner of Switzerland/a 3rd-place team in the R16. That’s a pretty favorable draw the way this World Cup is set up. Look at Netherlands vs. Morocco in the R32. Two top-10 nations facing off well before the quarterfinals. Absolute shame.
Croatia finish 2nd: The Vatreni would head back to Toronto to face the Group K runner-up which would be Portugal or Colombia. This is basically a coin flip from the previous scenario. Should they get past this match, Spain more than likely would await the Vatreni in Dallas for the R16 match. Don’t like this path. I hate it. I don’t want to have to play a team like Spain before the quarterfinals. And in this scenario, Croatia may have to go through Portugal and Spain to get to the final eight. That’s tough, guys. It’s a lot to ask for. I want to avoid this path at all costs.
Croatia finish 1st: I equally hate this path. This can happen if Croatia beats Ghana and England somehow drops points to Panama. I just don’t see this happening. Although finishing first seems like the best move, it’s not. Yes, Croatia would get a 3rd-place side in Atlanta. However, the next R16 match would likely be Mexico in Mexico City AT ALTITUDE! Is Mexico a top side in the world in a neutral place? Absolutely not. But they are cooking on home soil to start the World Cup with three victories and a +6 GD; yet to concede a goal. The entire nation is behind them celebrating like there is no tomorrow in the streets of Mexico. On top of that, the Mexican national team has been in their capital city for the past month. Mexico City sits 7,350 feet above sea level! Their players have already acclimated to the thinner air. I would hate to have to play them on three days notice after playing at sea level to start the tournament. The jump to high altitude of CDX is tougher than it sounds. Mark my words, if England gets to CDX on this path, Mexico are going to be trouble for them.
3rd place is the best path for Croatia. And for all of you who say, “You have to beat the best to be the best.” Sure. But you don’t have to meet them so early in the tournament. You want some big boys like the Dutch and Morocco to knock each other out before they get to you.
Remember, Croatia had the easier half of the draw in 2018 and were fortunate to meet Japan in the 2022 R16 after Spain and Germany made a mess of their group. I will take the easier path all day and let the chips fall as they may.
I don’t want to run into Spain and I don’t want to play Mexico at altitude; not if we have control over the path we take. Give me 3rd place all day long. The real tournament starts when the knockout rounds starts. Make life easier on us. Easy decision for me.
Just win! Win every game! Play without fear. That is who deserves to win the WC…teams who don’t care who they play. Win every game!
Mi smo Hrvati!!! Igramo za pobjedu i ništa drugo!
Ajmo!
Bog i Hrvati
Imagine if Uruguay pulls off the upset on Spain and leapfrogs then in the standings?
The Croatia vs Ghana game would instantly become a classic with both teams killing themselves to try and win.
Great point
Completely missed it
Everyone should just let the 6 games happen today and revisit tomorrow
Too much mental masturb@tion!
This format for the playoffs is stupid. It was stupid to expand to 48 teams to begin with, but FIFA is corrupt, so it is to be expected. The whole third place fiasco is insane. I know we have it in a smaller form for the Euros, but still. Austria plays Algeria tomorrow, and it benefits neither to win. The winner would get Spain, the loser gets Switzerland. The easier solution for the playoffs is simple and removes the third place bs: the top 8 group winners go to the round of 16, with the remaining 4 group winners and the 12 second place teams play off for the remaining 8 spots. This eliminates the round of 32 and gives another benefit: for those teams like Mexico, US and Germany that clinched the group after two games, they would still have to play to win the third game to ensure they are in the top 8 group winners and to avoid playing the extra game. And those 8 group winners would only have to win 7 games to win the World Cup (like the old format).
But that would mean 8 games instead of 16 games. It’s all about the money that’s why they made this format. They get an extra 40 games compared to previous World Cups and that’s what makes them happy.
Yes, I know, so why not make it 64 teams, or 128? Sadly, 64 is actually better than 48 because you get rid of the 3rd place nonsense if you have 16 groups of 4, but it’s way too many games and way too many crappy teams. And you won’t be able to cram in all of those games into a five week calendar. And a March madness type bracket wouldn’t work because it’s a lot fewer games and they won’t want teams playing a one and done.
They’re planning to make it 64 teams 🤣
Want Portugal
We don’t play hot potato with anyone, must exorcize demons
Would be funny if we beat them the same way they beat us.
Just defend and foul then show in the end.
What we really want is to get our rhythm going. We just haven’t looked the same as we did as recently as recently as in spring 2025 against France in Split- 2-0. That day it looked like we could beat anybody. We need to get a formation/lineup set and then hope for the best. Zlatko’s Krunice have helped in the past!
We haven’t been good for a long time.
These past three tournaments (Euro2024, the most recent Nations League, and this World Cup) have all been a disaster.
We played one good game in the past three years against a good team (home game against France in Nations League) and that’s it. Every other game against a good team (Portugal, France, England, Spain) we were destroyed very easily by multiple goals.
In the past three years, we won against decent teams only three times…
against Poland when we beat them 1-0 in the UNL, beat the Czechs 5-1 in qualifying, and we beat Scotland (but required a false VAR call to do it).
The Czechs are a bad team (as proven by this World Cup) so we really only should count Poland and Scotland as decent teams.
If we show up flat against Ghana, and then get beat easily (again) by Portugal, we are going to have to listen to Dalic tell us that we are a small country (again) and (again) accept this level of mediocrity for another few years.
If we don’t make a run in this tournament, then it’s time to rip the band-aid off.
Best game from 22-26 was Netherlands 4-2 in nations semis man in 23
That period (June 2023) was the last time we actually played well.
Then we got slapped around by Turkey and Wales in Euro2024 qualifying, got slapped by Spain in Euro2024 itself, then again by Portugal and Scotland in the most recent UNL.
Now, it’s England and (almost) Panama.
We need to stop this punishment.
We need to stop thinking about second place, third place, brackets, calculators, and who plays who.
Just play to win.
Play with pride. Play with courage. Play with passion. Play like the shirt means something. If we win, we go forward with our heads high. If we lose, then lose fighting, attacking, and giving everything — not afraid, not scoreboard-watching, not hoping other teams save us.
We have always been at our best when we play with heart, belief, and no fear.
Forget the scenarios.
Play for Croatia.
Play to win.
And whatever happens, make us proud.
No you don’t want to meet Portugal they will beat Colombia and be the winner of their group, we want to meet Colombia, but we have to play really good match against Ghana and show we still got it.
If we really want to finish third, we get ahead one goal and roll one back to Livakovic which he allows to roll through his legs, during the very last second of stoppage time.
Turkey impresses me with how they always play to the very last second. Their victory over US reminded me of the Euro victory against Croatia in the quarterfinals 2008 I believe?
oh god dont remind me of that game plz
Talking about strategy on how to make the perfect 3rd place landing with a tie, is a little bit much, putting our Angels on overtime double pay for sure, whistling by the graveyard mode. A tie is not a guaranteed outcome.
With that said, I like the idea of the defense first with soft bunkering, like we did in 98′, where we lived by the counterattack, not saying settling for a tie, but having a bit of defensive mind set for the Ghana speed demons.
We just seem to have a lot of defensive players with a lot of offensive ability: Jakic, Stanisic, Vuskovic, Gvardiol, etc.
For long pass counterattacks we have Baturina, Musa, Sucic.
I am not saying go all Greek mode, just a focus on executing good defense.
I think Stani, Bati and Liva are our only good players lol
Add Petar Sucic and Perisic to those three, and you’re right.
Still it’s enough to make a couple things happen if Luka can Turn it on for a couple more weeks and then ride off into the sunset
Heck maybe budimir can get hot a bit
If Gvardiol and Modrić show up, then we’ll have 7 good players and will only need to round out the squad with four more role players.
I think Vušković needs to get back in there, and we should try out Jakić at RB. That should clean up our backline with faster, in-form players in our fullback positions with Stanišić on the left side helping Gvardiol (especially since Ghana’s best player is at RW).
Kova should be benched and only come on as a sub for Modrić. Giving Musa and Budimir a half each is fine.
For the Croatians in the greater Toronto area, do you want Croatia to win tomorrow and get 2nd place (assuming England beats Panama), thereby playing the first knockout game in Toronto, but the caveat is that they play Portugal. My big fear is that happens and they lose 3-0 or something. I would rather they lose to Ghana if that happens. Losing to Portugal in 2016 they way they did and then them going on to win the tournament. That was bad enough. This would be worse. Of course, beating them in Toronto would be fabulous. I have no clue what would happen, as both teams have big question marks.
We should just bunker it up (with the 8 CBs that Dalić called up) and have Livaković win all our games for us via PKs.
May as well rely on him. He’s basically been saving our arse so far.
I believe Croatia qualify as a 3rd runner up with a draw. The only way they don’t qualify is with a loss
So we will fight to hold the ball in our own end at the end do the match to have Ghana try to steal it. Boot it back to their keeper who rifles it top shelf in injury time
That Would be fantastic football phuckery.
How awesome
4 points guarantees a third place? Do we know this for certain?
I know there were some bad results for us yesterday
Yes, 4 points guarantees a 3rd place playoff spot. Scotland and Korea finished with 3 points, so they beat them on points. Paraguay finished with 4 points, but a minus 2 goal difference. Croatia ties tomorrow and their goal difference is minus 1, so they are above Paraguay. And Senegal plays Iraq, and they both have zero points, so the most that third place team will have is three points. So Croatia ties, they are in for sure.
Actually
If Ghana finish 3rd – after Kansas City – it’s Vancouver – so Partey would miss that game – so they are screwed – but it’s better to have Partey for R32 (which is a guarantee) then plan for R16
Mental Masterbati@n !!!
Play for a win then whatever happens happens. If we play for the draw we will end up losing. Modric has his 200 now it’s time to put him on the bench, he’s no longer starter level quality. That’s two crappy games in a row for him, if he can’t step aside on his own Dalic needs to grow a pair of balls and bench him.
We are not going to be 1st so that scenario can be tossed out the window. Now whether it would be better to be 2nd or 3rd I would take 3rd as it seems like an easier path but with our form so far we are just as likely to lose any game.
Now consider Ghana POV – they WANT to lose and finish 3rd too
Their best midfielder Thomas Partey can’t enter Canada if they finish 2nd and the R32 in Toronto – and they don’t want to play Mexico at elevation either
Considering the fact that Modrić was one of the best midfielders in Serie A and one of the best players in the league overall, the narrative that he’s suddenly not good enough to be a starter is ridiculous. It’s based on just two games that were below his usual standard. This is much more of a continuation of Dalić’s poor decision-making at the Euros, where he kept experimenting with formations, tactics and his starting 11 while repeatedly making the wrong calls. Modrić absolutely has to start against Ghana. Nobody else in Ghana’s squad comes remotely close to his ability to control the tempo and dictate a game the way he does, even at his age.
I just don’t believe it’s as straightforward as that!
What does coming third look like in your eyes? Does this mean we manage the game against Ghana and try to hold them to a draw? Superb strategy until they score late and we get dumped out in third – do we really trust this side to get a goal back if that happens, against a low block team that held England?
We can’t rely on coming third as a safe bet. Certainly if we only get 3 points, then we’re facing the possibility of getting dumped outright.
Are we also just assuming Portugal won’t beat Colombia? Outside of that one friendly win against them two years ago, we really haven’t done well against them historically.
There’s just too much risk and not as great a reward as this article seems to suggest in coming third. We must play like the Hrvati we are and not some cowardly team going for anything less than a win!
Let’s at least wait and see the result of the Spain/Uruguay match tomorrow before we even consider the prospect of Croatia playing for anything less than a win.
Here’s a nice graph from the Atlantic on % probabilities vs. paths
x.com/search?q=the%20atlantic%20world%20cup&src=typed_query
The biggest benefit of finishing 3rd is FIFTY SEVEN extra hours of rest before we have to play – 1st play Wed 12:00pm – 2nd play Thur 7:00pm – 3rd play Fri 09:30pm – that’s massive
But why wouldn’t Ghana throw the game Saturday and let Croatia win 1-0 and secure 3rd place themselves ? I mean they aren’t complete MORONS they can see the same stuff we see – they will throw it and let Croatia win (maybe even kick the ball in their own net if needed) – mark it – now if this happens Croatia will have to respond by kicking the ball in their own net to return to a tie – that’s why Ghana will let a 0-0 draw happen until like the last minute of ET and then boot it in their own net – again, mark it
The point about 2nd playing in Mexico City at elevation (the stadium is at 7,220 feet above sea level) is valid – imagine poor 40 y/o and the other geriatrics having to try to run there lol – Ghana don’t want to play in Mexico City either
The other issue is the path’s won’t be set when Croatia plays Saturday – there will still be TWO groups or 4 games AFTER Croatia plays – and they will do their own calculations – Columbia will try to beat Portugal to stay 1st in the Group – but equally Portugal will try to beat Columbia to try to get 1st – in the other group Austria will 100% tank the game so they finish 3rd (to face Switzerland) and not finish 2nd as they are currently (and face Spain)
Colombia vs. Portugal
Congo DR vs. Uzbekistan
Algeria vs. Austria
Jordan vs. Argentina
But I can see Croatian pride – and Dalic wanting to win Saturday bc he doesn’t want to have to face the media why he lost 2 out of 3 – and we end up coming 2nd and end up in Mexico City – can see that happening too
These discussion are all mental masterbati@n – it’s predicated on NONE of the “big dogs” being eliminated in the R32 – that’s just silly – there will for sure be some upset(s) somewhere – so what maybe seem hard now – will seem easy later – like in 2018 Russia beat Spain in PK – and Croatia faced Russia (instead of Spain) – and if Denmark beat Croatia in the PK – it would have been Russia vs. Denmark in the QF (two underdogs)
Just take it one game at a time – anyone can win on a given day
The other reason Ghana will lose to Croatia deliberately on Saturday – is Thomas Partey can’t enter Canada – so they won’t want to finish 2nd and play in Toronto without their best midfielder – full stop – period
Let’s see if Dalic and nose pickers can’t figure out how to finish 3rd – I’m sure they will even f that up and end up finishing 2nd – mark it
Valid reasoning. Columbia is beatable. Beating Portugal would be a huge accomplishment and set us up nicely for the round of 16. Better odds against Colombia though.