Look, I honestly can’t tell if Croatia is an an absolute trash qualifying group OR if it will end up half competitive when all is said and done. However, for the time being, I say we need to stay cautious on enemy soil. We all know how our beloved Vatreni like to keep things interesting during qualifying matches.
The 5-0 win against Latvia on Friday won’t mean as much if Croatia can’t beat Armenia on Monday. With three points in Yerevan, the Vatreni can start separating themselves from the rest of the group. Remember, the top two nations in this group will automatically qualify for Euro 2024 next summer in Germany. After Monday’s matches conclude, Croatia will still have a game in hand on every team in Group D. Turkey will not be playing as they have already completed five games.
If Modrić and the boys can grab all three points, they can start thinking about locking up a Euro 2024 berth during their next two matches in October and rest players for the final two November games. But that’s a conversation to be had after the Armenia match. A win would be huge because Croatia would be tied atop the group with Turkey and have a 3-point cushion on Armenia. Croatia would then own a tiebreaker over both nations.
Ultimately, my goal is to have Croatia lock up a spot in October when they face Wales and Turkey. That would ensure rest in November for the vets, which include Modrić, Perišić, and Kramarić.
This Armenia side is gritty and will be a challenge on home soil on Monday. Their fans will surely treat this match as their World Cup Final with Croatia coming to town with captain Luka Modrić. (Remember when we lost to Hungary in Budapest following the 2018 World Cup? Same story.) Armenia should have beat Turkey on Friday but conceded an 88th minute equalizer to force a 1-1 draw on the road. They will surely be disappointed with the result but must they go for all three points against Croatia? A point is not the end of the world for Croatia, but it won’t do much for Armenia’s qualifying hopes, so how defensive will they play against Dalić’s tactics?
So far in qualifying, Armenia only have one point against Turkey in two matches (they should have more), easily beat Wales 4-2 and needed a 91st minute penalty to defeat Latvia 2-1. I really can’t tell if they’re decent or Croatia were just drawn in a crap group…but we will find out in 48 hours.
Here is the goal Armenia scored and conceded against Turkey on Friday below. Both defenses looked awful on the goals.
Are you worried about Armenia or should we consider this match three points in the bag?
We should never expect a cakewalk in someone else’s house, but the team should enter the match knowing that if they play to their abilities and keep their foot on the gas, their class will prevail vs Armenia. The worst thing they can do is to stroll in lax and entitled. I don’t think that’s been a problem for us since the lapse at Euro 2016. Keep possession, keep the pressure on, and keep taking the ball into the box.
We must show no mercy to these Anatolian hunter gathers.
Get ready for a beat down!!
LOL, I miss you armos since I moved to Croatia from Los Angeles. You’re like the gypsies of California.
Luka Vuskovic to Tottenham??
Interesting.
They’ve got another cigan in goals just like the one from Canada, let’s go all out and pump 6 past them.
Armenia securing a point is actually not the end of the World for them. I wouldn’t be surprised if they play it safe to avoid the loss.
If they pull off a draw, it puts them only 2 points shy of Turkey with 3 games to play.
Both Turkey and Armenia have to play Wales, Latvia and us again…but Armenia gets to play Wales at home (whereas Turkey plays them in Cardiff).
Turkey also has the misfortune of playing us in Osijek already in the next round, whereas Armenia plays us a second time in the last game of qualifying (where Croatia may field a B squad if we already qualified).
Armenia has a minor (but still potentially impactful) schedule advantage over Turkey after this game against us. Turkey does have the head-to-head tiebreaker on Armenia, but if Armenia stay within an arm’s reach of Turkey, anything can happen.
You’re a real life encyclopedia Maminjo!
No teams are truly a walk in the park nowadays. The one thing that went our way and really opened up the game was us scoring early. Once we scored, they had to play and although we had possession the entire game, Latvia still tried but just don’t have the quality to push back. We looked very good, everyone was moving off the ball and it kinda looked like a really good practice session.
Any team that plays with discipline and closes the middle of the field can get a result if they’re defending in numbers and don’t get caught on a counterattack. Armenia is a stingy team but I think at this point in our season, our guys look in form and they win back possession very quickly and collaboratively.
Regarding the team chemistry. This past week they had a 3 a side tournament and fans were involved. It was slightly competitive and events like that bring teams together. It felt good to see the event being displayed in the media throughout Croatia and it’s very good for team building.
Something I noticed this last game. Sosa seemed very lively and he was conscious of making his first pass decision to Perisic. He was also pushing forward and getting back. Sometimes it’s good to bench a player and make him think about the next time he gets a chance to play.
I don’t know what’s getting into me but now that we have all had to accept we really don’t have a true striker, I’m kinda liking Kramaric a little more, I really like the energy Ivanusec brings (he’s also very responsible defensively), I like Pasalic and trust him more…I am overjoyed with Sutalo and Gvardiol…they’re a top defensive pairing in the world if you ask me.
We will have to be patient tomorrow. Armenia know we will own possession and they’re practicing their shape and defensive strategy. If we are loose like we were against Latvia then I think we win with a good showing.
I agree with Sosa in that he looked better. I would argue that he still seems tentative given that he’s usually the player whipping in crosses for his club team. He and Perisic still don’t have the chemistry that I’d like to see. It’s almost as if he’s afraid to step on Perisic’s toes. That being said it’s a step in the right direction and hopefully they can continue to develop their chemistry.
Ivanusec continues to grow on me. I wasn’t a huge fan but he moves well and as you mention he brings an energy that we need.
Pasalic is very underrated for us. Great guy to have off the bench.
Agree with your view of Vlasic. as he’s someone who should be pushed down the pecking order.
I’m hoping Musa can develop into something for us this year, otherwise we will once again go into another tournament without a true no.9. He’s hasn’t had much time but this far he’s been invisible in my eyes. It’s still way to early to form an opinion on him with the repka but I like how Dalic is slowly bringing him on.
Lastly, Petkovic. I’ve always thought he’s lazy and disinterested when he plays. As of late, he’s been playing exceptionally well. His hold up play and small ball skills are perfect against a bunker team. The free kick goal was really nice to see. I wonder if Modric deferred the kick as he apparently did the same with a PK this season with Madrid. Luka’s legend continues as it’s a sign of him unselfishly wanting to incorporate younger players.
Petko should start again against Armenia.
All in all, a very good performance against Latvia.
Our away record in recent years is excellent and I’m optimistic that we won’t lose and will win in Armenia providing we play attacking football and go for it.
It is important that we win our group so to gain a better seeding for EURO 2024. Ten group winners are guaranteed spots in Pot 1 or at worst Pot 2. Six best qualifiers will be in Pot 1 for Euro 2024 draw, to be there I reckon we need 20 points.
I don’t think that Dalic will make many changes for the match. Kovacic if fit will come back in and Ivanusec will be benched. Hope to see Majer come on in the second half and it’s time for Frigan to get a chance instead of Musa.
I think Dalic is extremely cautious so I’m not sure he’s going to deviate from his “best 11” comments he makes. He always says those that are playing and in form, will start and as of now Kovacic is playing and starting at Man City…I wouldn’t mind seeing Ivanusec squeeze into the lineup. He’s been finding lots of goals recently and is on a hot streak.
Personally, I wouldn’t play Majer. I’m not sure he’s at his best lately so I’d wait til later in the qualifying round to see how he’s doing.
I don’t know enough about Frigan to say anything. I did feel bad for Musa the other day. He came in and just couldn’t find his mojo!
Mart,
Have you read the Euro qualifying rules?
I ask because a quick search brought me to an answer online that was unclear and easy to interpret in different ways.
I interpreted it as the pot designation would follow the formula in the past ( FIFA / Uefa ranking as the final deciding factor).
Futhermore, I viewed it as that you still need to qualify by either ending up 1st or 2nd in your group, or through one of the 3 playoff paths, but after you qualify, I think your ranking determines the pot that you are placed in for the final draw?
However, some people here have said that the results of games in the Euro 2024 qualifiers is the only criteria used?
If its only qualifiers, goals for / against will certainly come into play, so the game vs Latvia was absolutely awesome: 3 points and +5 to our goal differential.
If not, we should be in pot 1 based on our world ranking.
I thought it was the Nations League ranking (which I thought was the whole point of the Nations League ranking system).
We’re ranked 2nd in Nations League and we are also a group winner in League A. Our reward is that we get a second shot at qualifying (if we were to somehow miss it in the regular qualifying cycle) but our second place ranking would be the seeding used at the Euros.
I don’t feel like checking online haha.
LOL
Franjo,
Teams will be allocated to one of four pots (1, 2, 3, 4) in advance of the draw, in accordance with their results in the qualifying group stage. Hosts Germany are seeded in Pot 1 but are not drawn as they are automatically allocated to Group A. The three eventual play-off winners are assigned to Pot 4.
Earlier I forgot about the Host Germany, meaning that you have to be among the five best qualifying group winners to be in
Pot 1.
Thanks Mart,
So, do we decide to go for pot 1 and potentially increase our odds of landing in an easier group (helps to rest and avoid injury for top players in a tougher stage of the competition), or do we just do enough to qualify and rest our top players now, while giving younger players time to develop with the team?
Currently there are:
3 teams with 15 points after 5 games,
5 teams with either 13 points after 5 games, or the potential to do so
(including us).
It would be ideal to have a combination of both- do well enough to land in pot 1, and bring in the younger players.
Given that we have already dropped points to Wales, we don’t have as much time available for experimentation / development.
With 5 spots available in pot 1, your initial statement of a 20 point requirement I agree with, but I would add that at a minimum 20 points with a healthy goal differential.
It would be pretty ridiculous if Scotland and Hungary are seeded, but no system is perfect I guess.
Yeah, the system now appears to allow for more luck of the draw vs long term performance. Even the Nations league accomplishment advantages are not enough in my opinion.
I guess what UEFA is shooting for, is a high calibre competition where you need to be at your best throughout?
Maminjo,
The three most improved countries in recent years are:
Scotland, Hungary and Austria. They are tough opponents for any team these days.