Written by Rob Uvanović
Euro 2020 2021 is less than a month away and it’s time to start getting excited about the fixtures. Qualifiers, the Nations League (aka glorified friendlies) and actual friendlies only get the juices flowing so much as we’ve seen from recent Vatreni performances – so it’s time to turn things on again in a big way.
As a supporter, the question still stands the same as it did 18 months ago when the draw was made – what is Croatia’s best case scenario in Group D? Even with all of this extra time to think about it – it’s not clear-cut what Croatian fans are actually rooting for given the complexities of finishing first in the group.
If Croatia’s last game was against England, where both sides had already qualified, it would be a lot easier to pull a stunt like England did in 2018 v. Belgium and ensure an “easier path” to the final by not winning. However, as we play England first, and we don’t have any God-given right to progress given the way we have been playing, I expect the squad to come out firing, regardless of the fact that 1st place in Group D is objectively a worse proposition than finishing 2nd.
While Croatia are without doubt a better team than the Czech Republic and Scotland, both can and will prove to be tricky fixtures, especially with Scotland playing at home. Given the COVID-19 restrictions, it’s also very unlikely that we’ll see and hear any Croatian fans in the stadiums (entering Scotland from the EU currently requires a 10-day mandated paid hotel quarantine which appears to be sticking at least through the group stage). With a heavy heart, Ante and I both already returned our tickets knowing that it simply wasn’t feasible to attend as a supporter living outside the UK and I’m sure many Croatians are in the same boat. We will miss the vocal backing of the Croatian supporters, and thus these games will be true away games.
So, what could Croatia’s path look like for the knockout stage?
1st place:
- R16 – London: Runner-up of Group F (Almost certainly 1 of France / Germany / Portugal)
- R8 – Rome: Likely Spain
2nd place:
- R16 – Copenhagen: Runner-up of Group E (likely to be either Sweden or Poland)
- R8 – St. Petersburg: Almost certainly one of France / Germany / Portugal
3rd place – depending upon other results, Croatia could be placed into 1 of 3 different R16 slots:
- Slot 1:
- R16 – Glasgow: Group E Winner (likely Spain)
- R8 – Likely England in Rome
- Slot 2:
- R16 – Budapest: Group C Winner (likely Holland)
- R8 – Likely Denmark/Russia in Baku
- Slot 3:
- Seville – Group B Winner (likely Belgium)
- R8 – Likely Italy in Munich
Make no mistake about it – you have to beat the best to win the trophy, but I certainly won’t be shedding any tears over finishing 2nd in Group D and avoiding an incredibly challenging path to the final that would likely necessitate wins v. Portugal/France, Spain and Holland. We all know what happened in 2018 with the “easier path” and unluckily pulling a 3rd place Portugal in 2016 – you have to play the games, but the bracket does matter.
Yet, don’t count me in the boat of being happy if we lose v. England – a loss would leave us needing to make sure we get a result against the Czechs – and as we know, anything can happen in one game. I’d like to see full throttle v. the English and the Czechs, and if we’re already qualified, then we can play the kids v. Scotland.
CroatianSports nation, what do you think? We all know what this squad is capable of when playing at full potential and we aren’t scared of playing anyone – but I believe we are better off finishing 2nd to set up a better bracket for the Vatreni at EURO 2021.
[…] create Croatia’s easiest route the rest of the tournament. Please see Rob’s analysis here on finishing […]
Betting line v. England (pinnacle.com):
England -139
Draw +278
Croatia +440
‘Aim for second place’ wtf??
One game at a time, and always focus on winning !
btw, any news on Vlasic ? will he be ready for Euros ?
You plaaay to WIN the game!
Herm Edwards
I’m gonna sound like the infamous you know who for a moment….there is no need for all this mental masturbation. Teams that win or go far in tournaments play each match to win, and the results elsewhere in the tournament will pan out how they will. The end.
For the comments please make the default the newest post on top and not the top rated. It would be much better.
Working on it. Thanks for the feedback.
thx Ante. Agree with mixed grill (and saw the same feedback posted by someone else a few days ago). Think it would be better if newest comments always were on top. Thx for all your work btw.
I mean it’s pretty hard to “aim” for second place and realistically the team will be trying to win each game, but obviously it’s true if we happen to finish second, say we dont defeat Engerand in the opener, let’s be honest that it isnt the worst thing ever lol. I think we all will have our fingers crossed for a second-placed finish :D.
Its obvious that second places has its benefits but it sacrifices motivation and the winning mentality.
We should focus on WINNING every game. There called the Vatreni, not the Toplaci or the Mlakašci
Yep, France/Portugal/Germany are beatable. They’re fantastic teams but I hate having to try and figure out the easy path. Just bulldoze through and beat them!
Fun fact: We’ve never lost an opening match at Euros
96 Win against Turkey
04 Draw against Swiss
08 Win against Austria
12 Win against Ireland
16 Win against Turkey
Dream scenario…
Group Phase:
We finish first in the group (beating England, yet again) but still lose to Scotland with Lovren and Vida getting into a fist fight and kicked off the team.
Round of 16:
France finishes second in their group and we eliminate them 4-2 (with the ref giving us a penalty).
Quarters:
We play Spain, and we decide to rest Modric and a few starters and win the game on a late Perisic goal.
Semis:
We play Portugal (who finished third in their group and knocks out the Netherlands and Italy to get to the semis) and we beat them 1-0 in extra time. Modric gets a straight red for a cleats up tackle on Ronaldo.
Final:
We play Germany in the Final.
Some stupid COVID rule is enacted during the tournament that allows teams to call up additional players (so long as you wear two masks, and stay 6 feet away from all players on the field) and Dalic decides to call up Borna Sosa in a redemption move.
Sosa scores in his own net (forgetting that he doesn’t play for Germany), Index declares him a war hero, and the SDP give him a seat in parliament.
😂 Maminjo you have vivid imagination 🤣🤣🤣
Cro sensation
I didn’t realise that fun fact good pick up
The fact we have never went past the quarters then
Very underwhelming
“Vivid imagination” is one way to put it…
We lost to Germany in 1996 and got revenge in 2008
We lost to Turkey in 2008 and got revenge in 2016
We lost to Spain in 2012 and got revenge in 2016
England want to beat us so bad. That Wembley victory back in 07 was unforgettable. Knocked them out of Euros. Croatia have a good history of avenging wins in euros. 2004 was the worst.. an own goal made them draw France and then got beat by England 4-2. No revenge against Portugal or France ever.
Also teams we haven’t got revenge against
Mexico
Brazil
Scotland
Play for a draw in opener because we don’t have a good track record against Scotland for our last game. They have home advantage. As for the Czech, we blew a 2 goal lead last euros and that was a blow to the gut. Best case scenario we play Slovakia or Poland in the second round. But I highly doubt either of them are runners up. Finish second in the group and will most likely get Spain or Sweden. Finishing third would almost guarantee an elimination in round of 16. If we play the Dutch then we might have a chance. But I can’t see us beating Belgium and Spain would be tough. If we get past Netherlands, a matchup against Denmark or Russia would be interesting because both would seek revenge after what happened in Russia. A dub against Spain would be good but then a QF against England in Rome is better because no home field advantage for England. Highly unlikely but a victory against Belgium and we play the Italians. They’ve never won a competitive match against Croatia. None of the less, second place isn’t bad at all. England were smart to lose on purpose against Belgium in Russia and get an easier route until they played us. But if we somehow magically get first. A matchup with the defending European Champions or World Cup Champions would scare me. Awful track record with both teams and no way Germany is getting first in the group of death.
I don’t believe it’s smart to play to lose in any scenario, it can completely fuck up the chemistry, harmony or call it whatever you want!
Finding ways to win and get a result is how you advance and I don’t believe its a good idea to screw around with any type of “fixing”…it’ll usually nip you in the butt!
Croatia have beaten most giant teams, France is beatable and they have their issues as well, we just haven’t figured out how to play them…and they had a ref on their side in 2018.
I agree it’s a bad look on the national team to lose purposefully but let’s be honest. Cam Croatia get a win against France? Our defence isn’t strong enough to handle Mbappe or Benzema.
Anyone see the new Chelsea Kit? Seems they borrowed a checker print but not as bad as pool did.
haha yeah the right side is the exact Cro away kit from Euro 2016
Cup final live streaming on YT via HNTV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-Lw3I_QysE
so many bogeymen on this site re: the officials and this and that when it comes to us losing the WC Final. France was and is stacked. Could see if we lost to a scrub squad but France is a top 2 NT in the world. Not always a conspiracy.
Agree with a lot here. But in the end as said by others, you have to beat the top teams eventually. Look at who the eventual 2018 World Cup champs France had to play in the knockout rounds:
Argentina
Uruguay
Belgium
Croatia
This very difficult road didn’t seem to slow them down.
Also, an “easier“ path does not guarantee progress either. (how did Spain do when they were drawn up in a “weak game” against Russia? We needed PK’s to beat Denmark, etc).
Exactly. When you try to game the system and get a ‘good draw’ you’re eventually going to face a big boy NT and when you do and if you have that scared mentality, that big boy NT will shit all over you.
Those are all top teams but Argentina is far from a top team anymore. Any team that allowed 9 goals in 4 games isn’t a top team.
France didn’t have that difficult of a road.
Of all seeded teams, France had the easiest group phase, and got lucky on an Australia own goal at the end of their final match.
They also played Uruguay right after Edinson Cavani went down to injury. Uruguay were very organized and easily took down Portugal…but lost Cavani in the process, which crippled their attack.
The Argentina game was a mess and was going back and forth. France were better, but were down 2-1 and looked messy.
France were outplayed in the Belgium game and the Croatia game, and they got very lucky to come out with wins in both games.
France were no doubt a top-5 team in this tournament (along with us, Belgium, Brazil and probably one of Portugal/Uruguay/England)…
But you can easily “analyze” their wins and pick out the “luck” just the same as you did ours.
Heck, Belgium almost lost to Japan lol.
I agree with everything you said. France should of drew against Australia after that own goal and penalty given to Greizmann. They drew Denmark 0-0 and just beat Peru. Argentina should of been a walk in the park but they allowed 3 goals. The QF’s was easier too after that mess up was Muslara. The semis I agree too. Belgium had all the chances and preformed better in the knockout stages. But Belgium had a easy group too. Croatia had the toughest. France had no team that was above average and England had a laughable group.
i hear you all. I guess my point is only that it’s really rare to have your path include like 4/7 top ranked teams in the world. Having your 4 knockout round opponents be (for example) Portugal, Germany, France and Brazil is just some idealized worst case scenario that’s fun to think about, but never really happens. France’s path was about as difficult as realistically happens…. and they won the tournament (albeit undeservedly). So I think we shouln’t try to “game” the system. Just go out and win. Who knows. maybe Spain finishes 2nd in their group, and we get them anyway in the round of 16 by finishing 2nd in ours
Like England could’ve beaten Belgium! The final shouldve been Us vs Belgium. The 2 best teams at the tournament
It would have been an awesome match. Our midfield againsit their firepower. Two small nations would have been nice to. Instead we got that travesty of us vs France and the officials.
France had a good 10 minutes against Belgium in the semis where they got their setpiece goal. Otherwise Belgium were the better team.
How about that clear foul on Hazard right outside the box?
The entire set up is ludicrous where teams can intentionally throw games to hope for a weaker opponent down the road.
So does England suit up an inferior line up their first game up against us?
I don’t see it happening.
LA KNAT no mention of halilovic seriously ??
Come to think of it after looking at the Portugal’s group. Did they draw all three games purposefully? If they finished first they would have played Belgium and if they got second it would have been England. Then beating Croatia in the dying minutes was a fluke. Then they play Poland and Wales after. That was an easy route to the finals. They avoided Belgium, France, Germany and Italy.
When has the Grb been related to fear and trepidation – NEVER. We go out and play loose and let us just enjoy our great culture- Samo Hrvati!!!! This chicken crap about fearing France – whatever- one game – our time has come to put France in their little corner – Croatian may have lost some battle but we never lose the war. Let’s go , decki. Have fun and give it your all.
the third place could go advance |+
it sounds ridiculous .. with no desire for competition _
remember when playoff really matter =( in euro from 2000 up to 2008 | with the atmosphere that we really appreciate in every goals that NT has made .^.
now – it just +_ ah | not so luck –
better if we rest the player | or the player himself thinks to slack off due to the easy chance because he still likes to give more for the club!
and shit like this will come for World Cup | as well…
– goodbye –
for the best competition
when players can give all |l
All out to beat England.. AGAIN!!
Czech win necessary.
Rest Modrić vs physical Scotland to rest for playoffs.
I do not want points needed away to Scotland.
The squad depth has to come through vs Scotland. Tired legs did us in 2018.
Dalic has to rotate.
No the officials did is in
I agree with Ante..
Trying to mess around and predict who is going to lose this game and who is going to be second and who is going to finish in whatever place so you finish in whatever place so you can play one team and avoid another team is counterproductive and weak. Play to win first place and be in control. Have the other teams scared to play us not the other way around. If this squad is healthy and playing at the right level this could be our tournament!
Rob, great write up!
This is why I hate the expanded Euro format to 24 teams. A tournament of 16 teams was perfect. Top 2 get out of group stage and BOOM! you’re straight into the quarterfinals.
I’m going to say the same thing I said at the beginning of the 2018 WC…we have to avoid France for as long as possible. They are absolutely stacked and getting better.
If we would have lost to Argentina in group stage and ultimately finished 2nd, we would have played France in the Round of 16. It was the much tougher side of the draw with France, Belgium and Brazil. Croatia didn’t have to play Spain in the quarters because Russia beat them in PKs and then we finally met up with England and France. We didn’t have the worst road to the WC Final. We just didn’t. Doesn’t make it any less incredible what the boys did.
Like you said Rob, having the England game first makes it hard to plan but you have to play for three points. Imagine if we finish first and then the French play games with us to finish 2nd on purpose because they would rather play us than England.
You have to go in with Lion mentality and not fear anybody. Momentum is a real thing at these tournaments. Play hard and let the cards fall where they may. Imagine adding a EURO win against England at Wembley to our resume?
Yes, 2nd place should be the easier road but you can’t plan it out that way. Go for the throat right off the bat and slice hard. I don’t want to line things up like we’re playing chess. That’s when things get messy.
100% agree. Well said Ante. If we try to avoid the big boys early we’ll just have to meet them later on. Might as well get it done with from the start.
Totally agree on the Euros expanding to 24 teams is awful….but we all know the $$ talks. That being said, if the change was going to happen, it’s pity that it wasn’t 24 teams at Euro 2012 when we drew the Group of Death and went toe to toe against Spain and were at least one of the best 4 teams in the tourney.
As mentioned in the post – we absolutely go for glory v England in the first game….but if we get that glory, then it’s easier to chill v Scotland. As good as we are, as good as we can be, as fearless as we are – going through France/Portugal, Spain and Holland to get to the final would be an accomplishment in itself – but would leave us gassed, in the same way that we were in 2018. With a few more days rest and/or no extra-time thrillers, we win the final.
Yeah, hate the 24 team format. They wanted to expand for more $$, OK I get it. But try to figure out a way to keep the group stage more meaningful.
Maybe only 1st and 2nd place get out of the group (12 advance, instead of 16). And then the four best 1st place teams get a bye directly to the QFs, while the remaining 8 teams need to play an extra round. Keeps all the first place teams fighting hard in their 3rd game too, to try to get the bye.
As it stands now, the group stage doesn’t mean much at all.