After a catastrophic October for Croatia, where the Vatreni lost both Euro 2024 qualifiers to Turkey and Wales, Modrić and his troops are once again back on track to qualify directly for next summer’s tournament in Germany as they control their own destiny after Saturday’s results. So what has to happen Tuesday night when Croatia host Armenia and Wales host Turkey at 2:45PM (ET)?
Here are the two scenarios for Croatia to automatically qualify for Euro 2024 on the final match day:
- A Croatia win over Armenia in Zagreb
or
2. A Turkey win/draw over Wales in Cardiff
So for Croatia: “Win and you’re in!” Simple as that. It will be interesting to see what kind of lineup Armenia fields as they were eliminated from qualifying Saturday in their 1-1 draw against Wales. And for those of you saying, “Turkey has nothing to play for in Wales because they have already booked their ticket to Euro 2024”, that’s not entirely true. UEFA will not being utilizing FIFA rankings to determine pots for December 2nd’s Euro 2024 draw. Instead, seeds will be determined by points earned during the qualifying campaign. So if Croatia beats Armenia and Turkey lose to Wales, then Croatia finish top of Group D and would leap frog Turkey; being placed in Pot 2 for the draw. A draw or better for Turkey against Wales means they will be seeded in Pot 2.
However, looking at the current rankings — and this will all obviously change in the next 48 hours — it may be in Croatia’s best interest to be placed in Pot 3. The way things sit right now, being placed in Pot 3 would have them avoid the likes of Netherlands, Serbia, and Italy in group play with some pretty soft Pot 2 nations available to be drawn against: Albania, Romania, Austria.
But, first things first: QUALIFY! Then you can let the chips fall as they may.
Predictions for Tuesday:
Croatia 2-0 over Armenia
Turkey draws Wales 1-1
Italy was the better team overall, however in the end they were defending desperately for a draw as Ukraine went for it in the last 15 minutes. Ukraine unlucky not to get a penalty in stoppage time. With 14 points Italy along with Serbia will be in Pot 4.
That wasn’t a PK. The other camera angle showed no contact. It wouldn’t have been fair anyway since Ukraine created absolutely nothing in that entire second half. The better team moves on.
Ukraine will get another shot (I believe) against Bosna for the League B playoff.
But yes, Italy only finished with 14 points which puts them into Pot 4 along with Serbia. If Switzerland draws their final game, they too end up in Pot 4. Ukraine is another one who will end up there if they win their playoff.
Pot 4 is going to be more dangerous than Pot 2 now, ha ha.
there was contact! I’d prefer Italy to advance and I have zero skin in this game so just letting you know this situation would have easily been called a pk for the Italians if the situation were reversed. I saw 3 angles and all show contact.
the more I watch the replay the more this looks like a very clear PK!
There was definitely contact, had the ref given it, it would not have been overruled by the VAR.
Yeah i thouht it was a PK. bigger question is why VAR didnt even look at it? This was always my issue with VAR, they only use it when they want to
Iggy agree with you, VAR should have at least called the ref to have a look at the reply. I think the fact that it was Italy had a lot to do with the decision.
Better it happen to Ukraine than us
It already happened to us. Amrabat taking down Gvardiol in the 3rd place World Cup match about a year ago. Clear penalty with no VAR review. We still won but it should have been 3-1.
Italians vs Ukraine looks like one of our games…all over them but few and poor crosses and can’t score
Happy to see the Italians qualify.
One less issue to deal with if we were to screw up tomorrow.
If we were to lose tomorrow, then I believe the playoff path will be the winner of Croatia vs Estonia playing against the winner of Poland vs Finland.
in my opinion, we should know the recipe to win vs Armenia. we need to lift the tempo and let the ball do the work. Armenia will press high and this should be expected.
If our players match the energy of last game, we will win!
Let’s just plan on winning tomorrow.
yes sir!!
I belive Kazahkstan game is a must win or tie for Slovenia, it would be a shame to lose, since they did relativity very well, up to this point. Any idea if it is on TV? The beat them the first time, but they had also tied Demark the first time.
Slovenia just needs a tie.
Thanks……… Sesko just scored a penalty shot. Things going in the right direction in Ljubljana.
Slovenia finally qualifies for a euro tournament. 2-1 against Kazakhstan, today. Never thought I would see the day.
Matjaz Kek in action.
I watched the last bit. Slovenia looked good. Would love to steal their coach.
Appears the Slovene midfielders are not as adept in controlling the midfield like Croatia, always seems to hand it over a bit more, but they always seem very dangerous on penalty kicks, and great on counter attacks. Great counterattack goal my Verbic, and nice penalty kick by Sesko. Seem like they controlled the ball more than Kazakhstan. Stojanovic seems like he has a knack for getting penalty calls against the opposition.
I doubt Slovenia is not being paid Kek a ton, and he has already spent many years coaching in the HNL, so why not. I think Dalic is safe though if Croatia gets through.
so to circle back on the previous list… here is the list of croatian attackers and their goals + assists per 90 minutes. All hail Nikola Kalinic. On serious note though, I think there is a strong argument to be made that Perisic is the greatest Croatian NT player of all time with by far the highest goal + assist combo and the importance of those goals has been extremely high. Throw in that these other players are strikers that did not have the same defensive contribution of Perisic tracking back and the case is becoming clearer and clearer.
Player G+A per 90 Goals Assist G+A Minutes
KALANIC 0.87 15 3 18 1,856
EDUARDO 0.83 29 5 34 3,698
SUKER 0.81 45 6 51 5,649
LIVAJA 0.76 4 2 6 712
KRAMARIC 0.67 27 9 36 4,862
PETKOVIC 0.65 10 2 12 1,667
MANDZUKIC 0.62 33 11 44 6,385
PERISIC .57 33 30 63 9,907
VLAOVIC 0.46 15 0 15 2,947
OLIC 0.44 20 8 28 5,685
PRSO 0.43 9 3 12 2,529
BUDIMIR 0.32 1 2 3 854
Guys, let’s take a moment to actually relish the last 24 years
Since Serbia last made a euro
Look at what we did….
It just isn’t a party if Croatia isn’t there
If there is one thing we are used to is big games in November!! Ajmo
Serbs being as bad as they have over the last 20 years in soccer is a tough one to understand. they are better than us in most other sports.
In basketball the gap between Serbia and Croatia and is even larger than what the gap was in soccer. Tennis better. Water Polo better, although we are not bad. Both are top 4 in water polo. Handball we have fallen, but they are still behind us. They are much better in volleyball.
It’s actually very easy to understand.
Serbs were never good at soccer. Throughout Yugo’s history, they were never the best players. Yugo’s best players were always Croats. Even Zvezda’s and Partizan’s best players were Croats (despite almost no Croats playing for those teams).
Also, if Serbs were better at other sports then they would have better Olympic record than us.
They don’t.
Croatia is not only the best in the region for Olympic achievements, but are even better than Yugo too. I think the gold medal rate for Croatia is higher than Yugo’s, which says alot.
Basketball, Waterpolo, Handball, Volleyball are all fine sports…but they are sports that most countries do not play….plus they are included in the Olympics (for which Serbia is behind us in).
When comparing who is better at sports, you have to put a coefficient on the sport itself too.
What we achieved in one World Cup will dwarf any achievement in any of these sports by a large factor.
Plus Djokovic skews the tennis argument. Croatia has overall had better tennis players – Ivanisevic, Cilic, Ancic, Ljubicic. All top ten players, with a couple of majors in there. Djokovic is the only Serb, and his mother is Croatian. In women’s tennis, not much difference (Ivanovic and Majoli each won a French).
Correct.
Tennis is easy to swing against the grain because it’s an individual sport. Croatia has always been (and still is) the better tennis nation, but they got Djokovic so he’ll clean sweep the Grand Slams.
We have more Davis Cup wins and finals appearances than they do, more doubles titles, Olympic medals, etc…which I guess would be more reflective of the country as a whole. It depends on what you subscribe to when you measure the achievements.
But tennis is a legit worldwide sport. I would rank it ahead of basketball, waterpolo, handball, etc.
Serbs are bad at soccer. Great at tennis. Mediocre in the Olympics.
Great sports nation, just like us…but I put us ahead of them, especially when you factor in our population size and other metrics that should put them far ahead of us.
Also, on a related note, Slovenia is really starting to come around as sports nation too.
I think croatia win it wont be easy as armenija are a solid team but at home get 3 points and just scout for 2024 stay healthy is key and build solid team
Dalic is pretty consistent with his lineups.
He will very likely roll out the exact same lineup as we had against Latvia, and I’m fine with that.
Last month, we were missing too many offensive options and you could see a big difference with Krama and Ivanusec being back this month.
We were also playing too many out-of-form players like Kovacic, Juranovic, Petkovic, etc.
Kovacic was our worst player in both games last month, and I’m glad we weren’t trying to force guys into the lineup on Saturday if they were not 100 percent.
Also, going with Erlic over Vida was a very underrated move (impactwise). Vida should have retired in 2018. Even though Erlic is nothing special skillwise, he is probably one of our most in-form players. He’s almost never injured, never out of form, and always playing first team football.
So long as Dalic doesn’t start tinkering with the lineup, we should be more than fine.
Armenia will run a lot and take some long range bombs outside the box (which they are known to do), but we should be able to smother them in the middle like last time.
They are a physically small team, so hopefully we take advantage of that and see if we can send Budimir some crosses inside.
Agreed. Last game wasn’t perfect, but its a winning combination that we can build off. I’m sure Dalic will stay on the same course for Armenia. Hopefully he make the necessary changes at the right time.
Mikki I agree. However nothing ever comes easy for us. Although this team is more talented than people think, we have a lot issues to resolve if we are going to win Euro. Understand that this team talent stops being talented when we play a major power. We can hold our own ,but we will not win if we cannot score goals. To many times we lost because we did not have the talent or the luck to overcome our circumstances . We were not good enough to beat Argentina . The squad that played held the power of Canarinho. That was an accomplishment that gave our rag tag team credibility . The team is good not great . Does it have potential! maybe!. This is Luka last rodeo. I would like to see him win . We need every young player we have to start . Most important we need a crew that can score . Our biggest shame is that we allowed the generation that started with Luka first game and beat Argentina in the winter of 2006 in Geneva to fail . We went to euro and crashed. We failed to go to Africa. We had disaster after disaster until 2018 and this last cup . We had a good talented generation and it was wasted. We could of won euro and two world cups had we had our act together . We have confidence now and may have a little magic left to pull off the greatest sports robbery in history and win . We fail here we might not not have another shot for a long time . Lets hope for a win . Would like to avoid a playoff round. We have had enough shame
Guess I jinxed Spain by keep pointing to Gavi as the gold-standard e.g. of youngster getting time w/ their national team
Nasty ACL injury – out up to 9 months
Also Arda Guler – knee in summer – then another month long
Crazy how many of the hottest young prospects are blowing out their knees at such a young age / beginning of their careers – hopefully modern medicine gets them all back to 100% – but unfortunately we know that often isn’t the case (e.g. Pjaca)
It’s all the stepovers and quick side-to-side moves.
Just watched our U21 qualifier against Belarus played in Armenia. We won 1 – 0 with Marin Ljubicic scoring the winning goal in the 83 minute with Belarus being down to 10 men from the 72 minute.
Very disappointing performance against a team that is last in our group, even Andorra is ahead them. Not enough running, slow tempo and missing Roko Simic who is injured. We had Gabriel Vidovic, Stipe Biuk, Marin Ljubicic and Franjo Ivanovic in the starting line up and Frigan on the bench.
Gabriel Vidovic and Stipe Biuk were totally useless, and I cannot see them ever playing for our seniors. Vidovic in particular is such a disappointment and was subbed at HT albeit playing on the left wing.
there is not much talent in the lower levels
U21 results mean absolutely nothing. History has proven this.
I think you both know this, but pessimism is like porn for the both of you, ha ha.
I’ll need to remind you with all their youth success the mighty Serbia with their first euro in 24 years
Let these pessimists do their thing.
There will be a couple kids come up from these ranks and must be reminded much of the time Croats are later bloomers
Whether that part is genetic or from training can be debated but it seems often it’s the care
I agree on your comment on erlic. He is not special but he seems dependable and consistent
Like a Toyota and that’s what we need back there
This is why I don’t bother with watching the U21s.
Even if they did well and won a youth tournament, I wouldn’t care. It means absolutely nothing.
This is why I couldn’t stand it when Dalic would give away youth players to Biscan and these other youth coaches.
It’s just a stepping stone for these coaches’ careers, and it comes at the expense of integrating young players into the senior team sooner.
Now that Baturina is on the senior team, watch him develop into a useful substitute over the next couple of years.
What’s best if baturina and sucic can develop into above average options ya when luka is Gone it’s a massive hole but we can most likely keep one of the better international midfields for hopefully the next decade
Baturina yes while small he didn’t look to have nervousness in his eyes when coming on
He may be built for the big stage. Let’s hope so
agreed on U21s. Results at youth level are overblown. I just dont think this current group has much talent.
Sure they do. You just don’t know it because it’s too early to gauge how they’ll turn out.
We’ve never had players in the 19-21 age range ever start in top leagues outside of the HNL.
Rakitic at Schalke is the only one I could think of. Even Modric was in Bosna playing for Zrinjski, then Inter Zapresic at this age.
Now we have Gvardiol, Sucic, Simic, Beljo getting Champions League or Lige Petice experience…and they’ve barely scratched the surface of their potential.
Baturina is still 20 and if he’s sold in the winter transfer window, you could probably add him to the list soon.
You may not like guys like Beljo or Simic, but playing regularly in the Bundesliga or winning a MOTM award in the Champions League at age 20 is still very impressive and can’t be dismissed. It’s a big deal.
Kovacic in Italy?
Under21 should have won by 3-4 goals if they finished their chances. Ljubicic missed two one on one with the keeper. From this generation I don’t think you will se to many future national team players. The best players Sucic and Baturina should be with the national team. From watching HNL I think Bukvic has a good chance to be in the A squad. He’s playing left back for some reason with the under21. The forwards are all pretty good but no elite talent. There is no Suker or Boskic among these forwards. Vidovic is a strange player good technique can shoot dribble but pretty slow and weak in duels. There are times he looks like a player but other times you don’t notice him at all. This team is also missing Stojkovic who I like a lot and Kacavenda who probably will never be the same player again after 2 major knee injuries.
The main object is to win the match and be guaranteed a spot at the EURO.
Draw might be enough? however with 14 points will end up in Pot 4.
Not so sure that Turkey will win or draw against Wales? they also might be keen on being in Pot 3.
Sure, Turkey might end up throwing the game, which is why we need to focus entirely on the win over Armenia.
But, I don’t see Turkey’s new coach (Vincenzo Montella) wanting to throw the game though. He’s just started his coaching term with them, and I’m sure he would love to continue this winning streak they’ve started.
I expect them to beat (or at worst) draw against Wales.
Armenia, at the same time, has nothing to play for and may end up running an experimental lineup against us.
But also, at the same time, they have a passionate coach in Oleksandr Petrakov who may want to end their campaign on a high note.
His job might be on the line for it too, since I don’t think he’s locked in to a long term contract with them. He’s largely been a youth coach in his career, so I’m sure he would want to stay on.
Tomorrow will confirm which of Italy, Czech or Finland will be in the League A playoff path as well.
Agreed.. let’s see what happens. So excited for Tuesday hopefully we can see a great result. 🇭🇷🔥⚽️ Enjoy the game everyone ✌️
Hey Ante can you please fucken change my status from rookie I think you made a mistake when you did something idk what but ive asked you 10 times by now I’ve been here since the start wtf brother….
You’re no longer a Rookie my man….