Written by Rob Uvanović
After that stressful, frustrating, but ultimately fruitful win against Scotland, Croatia have finished 2nd place in Group D, giving them what might be the more favorable draw (as you may remember from my pre-tournament post) against the Runner-up of Group E. Even if we end up getting Spain, it should be more favorable than England, who as winners of Group D, will receive the poisoned chalice of playing the Runner-up of Group F (France/Germany/Portugal), albeit at Wembley.
Now onto the million-dollar question, who are we going to play? Group E is still very muddled and we could play any one of the four teams (Sweden, Spain, Slovakia or Poland). Here’s how things break down for tomorrow in case you’ll be following along (Spoiler Alert: If Slovakia-Spain ends in a draw and Poland beat Sweden it’s going to be time to break out the calculators):
Croatia will play ________ in the Round of 16 IF:
Sweden:
- Sweden draws AND Slovakia wins
- Sweden draws AND Spain wins by 2 or more goals
- Sweden draws AND Spain wins by 1 goal AND Spain scores more goals than Sweden
- If Spain wins by 1 goal AND scores the same amount of goals as Sweden, it would come down to fair play points (both teams have 2 yellow cards at this moment)
- Sweden draws 0-0 AND Spain wins
- Sweden loses by only 1 goal AND scores in the game AND Slovakia draws (e.g. Sweden lose 2-1, 3-2 or any combination higher – they cannot lose 1-0)
Slovakia:
- Sweden wins AND Slovakia wins/draws
- Sweden-Poland draw AND Slovakia draws
- Poland wins 1-0 OR wins by 2+ goals AND Slovakia draws
Spain:
- Sweden wins AND Spain wins
- Sweden-Poland ends in a score draw of 2-2 or higher AND Spain wins by only 1 goal AND Sweden score more goals in their game than Spain
- If Sweden-Poland ends in a 1-1 draw AND Spain wins 1-0, or any combination of Sweden-Poland drawing AND Spain winning by 1 goal AND Spain scoring the same number of goals as Sweden – it would come down to fair play points (both teams have 2 yellow cards at this moment)
Poland:
- Poland win AND Spain wins
- Poland win AND Slovakia wins
- Poland win 1-0 AND Slovakia-Spain draws
After all of the stress of the group stage and for as poorly as we have played, no one from Group E should be feared, and with a little bit of luck, we could finally win our first knockout round match at the Euros.
What feels more likely? Sweden are already qualified, but are looking to at least draw to avoid 3rd place and facing Belgium – so they will still likely have one foot on the pedal. However, in a must-win game for Poland, I think they will just edge Sweden to ensure their qualification and I just can’t see Spain not winning at home to Slovakia. Yes, Spain have looked awful in their first two games – but I think Slovakia are not as compact defensively compared to Sweden or Poland to be able to hold out for 90 minutes for the draw they need. Remember – we just saw Slovakia in our World Cup Qualifying group give up 2 goals at home to Malta….anything is possible, but I expect Polish and Spanish wins – which would leave us facing Poland in a match-up where we’d have to fancy our chances.
CroatianSports Nation – who do you want in the Round of 16?
Dalic finally got the lineup I always wanted to see on the field against Scotland.
Juranovic always plays well then never gets a second chance. Vrsaljko has been out of control with awful touches.
Thank God for Perisic, sets one up and scores another
Solid effort from Vlasic.
Outside of Modric, seems our Hajduk players are our best right now
Why doesn’t Rijeka produce anything?
The only experiment he should have tried was to turn Pasalic into a striker – Rebic, Kramaric and Petkovic are not suited for, or motivated enough.
Pasalic knows how to position himself in the box, in fact, scoring 3 times for us recently.
Brozovic is losing it mentally – shame to see him going through anger issues. He and Kovacic are the only players in their prime years with talent Croatia has.
Hey Kvartuc – playing Kovacic isn’t like having only 10 men on the field.
In fact, he might have been our best player against Scotland.
The REAL issue is playing Rebic and Kramaric – that’s like playing with 9 men.
I think we match up well against Spain. We play better against their tika-taka style than a bunker team like Sweden (although Sweden played much more open against Poland than I expected).
This is the third Euro in a row where we faced Spain.
In both previous matches, we faced heavy bias from the ref.
This will be a great match, but I worry that it will be ruined by bias.
I hope we get an English ref.
I was thinking the same thing i have some feeling the ref will screw us some penal red card some bs
Spain is the profile match up we love.
Dalić plays the horses, then we will run wild on weak Spaniards.
I had a feeling Sweden would score at the end. Same thing happened in 2016. Thought we were going to play Iceland in the 2nd round, and then they scored in the last minute of injury time against Austria, so we played Portugal instead. And got a yellow card happy ref from Spain that called 28 fouls on Portugal, but only gave one yellow card. And ignored 2 straight red card offenses. I’m guessing to round things out, we get a Portuguese ref for this game. And you know they will screw Croatia again.
If we can take out Spain, it will build a lot of confidence. We’ve got nothing to lose, pressure is off as Spain are always viewed as favourites. My only worry is that refs generally favor Spain.
Can’t believe Poland just gave up that goal in the end.
I would have loved to play the overrated Swedes.
Now it’s Spain.
Espana v. Hrvatska on Monday.
We are going to destroy Spain on Monday. 3-0 my prediction.
No were not. I bet this ends in a 1-0, 2-1 scoreline, for either us or Spain. We’re not going to blow them out of the water.
YAY SPAIN
It looks like Spain is back. You guys still sure you want to face them?
Didn’t think we’d get the result yesterday… I’m happy to have been proven 100% wrong. Very inspiring performance. We played our brand of football and we soundly won.
Curious to see who we’re paired with in R16. Would want Sweden the least but I think we’d matchup well with Slovakia or Spain.
Looks like it will be Spain. Should be a easy win for us.
Our potential opponents
Slovakia: A C plus team at best. No striker that scares me or is top quality. Although the midfield is decent when they have Hamsik & Kucka playing together at full strength. Backend is decent too but besides Skriniar, nobody else is that good. Dubravka is a beast so that’s my only worry.
Spain: Definitely one of the worst performers at the tournament so far. The fact they have majority possession of the last two games and only scored goal is pitiful. They have lots of strikers and scorers but can’t do much. If they can’t beat Slovakia or put a few past them then that’s pathetic. One goal in two games is bad for them. They shouldn’t even have tied Poland or been awarded that soft penalty. Once again the ref favourites the bigger team. They would worry me if we played them. Only because they maintain possession well and the passing is unreal. They can create threats in the box or with crosses.
Sweden: Definitely a dark horse in the tournament. No doubt they will be victorious over Poland. Isak and Forsberg are guys to look out for it we play them. The defence is strong and goalkeeping is good too with Olsen. Our centre backs would have to stay on Isak like a fat kid on a smartie. The midfield is decent as well.
Poland: Highly unlikely we play them. If it wasn’t for Lewandowski this team would be below average and not even at the euros. Although, they got screwed over the last two games with calls. Those two yellow cards when Slovakia scored on the 10 men after the red. Then the Spain penalty shouldn’t have been awarded. The Polaks aren’t a great team but still average. They just haven’t performed at this tournament nor impressed me. Not the same as they were last euros when they drew Germany and made the quarter finals.
The way I see it, anything can happen in the knockout stages. Upsets happen all the time or a team shocks everyone and makes a run. We did it, Iceland, Costa Rica and Greece. Just worry about Monday’s opponent. The other game between the group f runners up or a third place team hasn’t even happened. Let’s just focus on the next game.
So long as we continue with this lineup (minus Lovren) we should be okay.
Vlasic is too good not to start, and although Rebic is very useful at RW…Vlasic is just way too impactful.
The defence from our fullbacks are an issue, but what they provide on offence has been excellent.
Caleta-Car will give us more stability in the back four, and his ability to clear headers was obviously missed in yesterday’s game (our inability to clear our headers is the reason why Scotland scored).
Our weakness is our back four, and it’s a shame we could not address this sooner (as we do have some intriguing players there).
We’re going to have to stick with Vida…but hopefully Dalic doesn’t get too loyal and tries to insert Barisic back into the lineup now (or Lovren if we make it to the quarters).
Regarding going back to Lovren if we make it to the quarters; I put that at 100%. Not that I want that as he’s a penalty waiting to happen and his clearances have been garbage.
Gvardiol was amazing with his offensive play, but I think Dalic will go back with Barisic, though I’m only 75% certain on that one.
I’d take Slovakia for sure. We always seem to play well against them. That being said, it’s quite unlikely so my order after them would be Poland, Spain then Sweden. Sweden are looking dangerous and the thought of Isak lurking around Vida truly scares me. Spaniards have been really shitty so I see us winning; it’s always a good game with them. Poland are some of the biggest chokers so I wouldn’t mind that matchup either. Like Maminjo said, this “easier” ro16 matchup could be deadly as the quarterfinal matchup will be a very tough one. Hoping for Germany, we usually beat them when it counts.
Don’t care! If we play like we can and they’re all beatable.
That said, Spain or Poland sound the most intriguing. Sweden or Slovakia are boring opponents
Pog, any idea what time the game is on for us westerners?? I have a course I’m trying to get through
I may have to quit like three days before the end cause of the game
But priorities right;)
All those teams are just fine
Sure we could beat France Portugal and definitely Germany and we are due to beat the chops and frogs
But I’m sure back of the head the boys are very thankful to dodge them for now
But hey anyone can beat anyone these days
It’s one game anything can happen
But our boys needed this
We have the ability to get hot
Would you guys take another final shot and let’s say sacrifice a World Cup birth for it?
I certainly would
Quarters are definitely a possibility
But nice and easy
9am I believe
Qtrs would be 9am too
Then semis and final are at noon.
So proud we made it through i was hoping to reach the quarter finals to me its an achievement so proud good fight hard game lets see who we get and play good knockout round anything is possible ajmooooo
On history, Slovakia gets their brains beat in by Croatia. I don’t know why- but they just do. That looks like the best match up for the Vatreni. As long as Modric is coaching and playing -we got a shot.
Luka will stay on and become an official player coach for next year! That would be sweet
Seems to me bilic could be cool with something like that??
Slovakia or Spain. No way Poland will beat Sweden. One game at a time. Who cares the Germany group. Just win on Monday.
We meet Spain and Dani olmo scores a late winner worthy of a Shakespearean tragedy is my fear!
I’m more interested in who our potential quarterfinal opponent is, lol.
Would be nice if it were Germany.
I actually think that Sweden would be the worst opponent for us, because of their boring “bunker” style of play.
Seeing our style of play and our strengths (midfield) weaknesses (defense) we should favor playing (in order): Slovakia, Poland, Sweden and last Spain. On a good day we can beat any of them, on a bad day, lets not go there…
I sincerely hope Dalic and the players get along enough to play their best on Monday. Croatia’s best is better than any of the “best” from the four in Group E… we just need to be at our best and that means Dalic has to stop pretending he is soccer’s version of Einstein and the players need to play together.
Good points. Love the name. Where you from in Istra?
Ante Budimir for some minutes next round. Love his industry up top. He can score as well.
No stone left unturned as we go forward.
I feel great against any team from group E!!
We always matched up well with Spain.
Dalić now dialing up the power players gives us the advantage against anyone from group E.
We will have momentum and a full 6 day rest.
Our squad depth is showing its quality.
With 5 subs we can run with anyone.
Spain would be yet another showcase game for us.
There are zero Real Modrić players for Spain for Luka to any love for. He will relish giving them the ZDS smack down.
Also that is a shit time for our R16 game, 2 am Tuesday morning Aussie time : |. Really was hoping for the 5 am slot.
It’s midnight over in Perth – much better than the 3am (5am EST) slot for us!! 🙂
Basically want Slovakia to draw with Spain, that would be the best result. Obviously any of the non-Spain teams is quite a good outcome, would be ideal if we got Slovakia having spanked them in recent times tho for sure. Fingers crossed for that.