FIFA made an extreme move on Tuesday regarding this Friday’s World Cup draw which will take place at Noon (ET). Originally, the lowest ranked European team, France, was scheduled to join African and South American teams in Pot B to to help continental balance for the group stage draw of the World Cup. Since nine unseeded European teams qualified for the World Cup, although there are only eights countries in each pot for the the draw, one team needed to be moved into pot B; and it was thought to be the French.
However, FIFA said Tuesday that they will do a pre-draw from Pot 4 with a random European side being placed into Pot 2 before the draw begins. Although no more than two European teams can be drawn together for the World Cup group stage, this opens up a can of worms for possible ‘groups of death.’
It is a 1-in-9 chance (11.11%) that Croatia gets thrown into Pot 2 at the beginning of the draw which means possible groupings with Brazil, Argentina and Columbia from South America can join the perfect storm of the Netherlands, England, Portugal or France all in one group. Although Croatia plays their best football against the world’s best, it would be an uphill climb at next year’s World Cup in Brazil should this happen.
The same scenario also applies if Croatia get paired with the European whipping boy later in the draw. Anything can happen but Croatian fans around the world should be happy with the Vatreni just qualifying for the World Cup after the past few months of staggering results.
Croatia’s toughest possible group: Brazil, United States, Netherlands.
Toughest possible group at World Cup: Brazil, Netherlands, United States, France/England toss-up.
The draw procedure will be as follows:
1. One European team will first be randomly drawn from Pot 4 and placed into Pot 2, in order to create four even pots of eight teams.
2. The draw will then proceed with the drawing of the other seven seeded teams from Pot 1 into Groups B–H, with Brazil having been predetermined to be in Group A.
3. To maximize geographic separation, an ancillary pot (“Pot X”) will be created during the draw procedure into which the four seeded South American teams (from Pot 1) will be placed. One of these four teams will be drawn out.
4. The sole European team from Pot 2 will then be automatically placed into the group of the South American team that was drawn from “Pot X”. This will prevent three European teams being grouped together.
5. All remaining teams will then be drawn sequentially from the pots (i.e. Pots 2, 3, then 4) into the groups in alphabetical order (i.e. Group A, then Group B etc). During the drawing of Pot 2, groups may be skipped over as the two South American teams in Pot 2 may not be drawn into the (remaining three) groups headed by South American seeds.
6. The positions within the eight groups will then be drawn for the non-seeded teams, in order to determine the order of the fixtures within each group. The eight seeded teams are automatically designated the position of Team 1 within their group (i.e. Brazil will be A1).
[…] The next six months of analyzing opponents and finalizing travel plans will come at the hand of plastic balls being picked randomly out of bowls. We’ve discussed scenarios and opponents for the past week, but now it’s just time to sit back and relax and see what the football gods give Croatia. World Cup draw procedure. […]
I have been stressing this all week. Its all about matchups.
We want to avoid a fast-skilled striker… Uruguay, Belgium, Argentina…
Pot 2 would be a disadvantage, however, it all depends on the other 2 teams.
How would we do with: Colombia, Croatia, Iran, Greece?
I like our chances to advance.
I’m hoping that lots of our diaspora in Argentina and Chile will be flying into Brazil to watch our matches, otherwise our supporters are likely to be thin on the ground.
I’m not so sure the Draw will be fixed in the World Cup. As we’ve often had “major” sides locked into difficult groups in the past.
What I’am worried about is Fifa being biased refereeing-wise towards us. Because they didn’t like what they considered a “Nazi” chant by Simunic. They might even fear that one of our players will do something similar in the knockout rounds.
It’s great that some of you will be going to Brazil to watch our beloved Vatreni. Man, IF Croatia ever make it to the Quaterfinals or Semifinals, I just might throw caution into the wind and fly down for a couple of days just to see that match.
@Bjorn Borg, fair enough. Maybe I just don’t like France very much… I still think they get more than their fair share of breaks going their way.
Further to my point above if you click the link and go to the 30 minute mark of the video when Benzema scores (29′) which was disallowed you can clearly see he was onside.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wSc0vLLhBso
@ Marko, France did have a goal disallowed in the 2nd leg playoff that was onside so you could say they got an even up call on the offside goal.
Forgot to mention that Blazevic and Ivankovic have also coached Iran, following Ivic. That’s one of the reasons why I’m more interested in the Iran team compared to, say, Honduras or USA.
Ziva – that’s the whole point. You won’t get a “top team” drawn from Pot 3 because there aren’t any – just a lot of also-rans and wild cards. That’s why it might be interesting to play a team like Iran, especially with the Tomislav Ivic link which they have.
Typical croatian mentality paranoia. The same people complaining about a fixed draw on Friday are the same people who thought the playoff draw would be fixed.
Wait to the draw comes out. I want to play the top teams. I’m don’t want to go to Brazil to waste $$$$$ on watching our guys play Iran or Algeria. Give me the top teams.
fuck i just drew mexico brazil and france in our group lol… with brazil and france we’d be fucked even if we were better we wouldn’t get any calls
[…] have to face Argentina/Brazil/Columbia/Uruguay PLUS another European team. More on this topic at CroatianSports.com’s latest article. 2) Weather – it will certainly be a factor playing around the equator even if it is […]
I’d actually welcome us getting drawn with France in our group tomorrow – there’s no team in the world I’d want to beat more right now, especially after the match fixing against Ukraine (one offside goal for France allowed, one red card on Ukraine that shouldn’t have happened…) to get them into this year’s WC finals, the Henry goal cheat against Ireland to get them into the last WC finals, the comments by Platini about Croatia, our semi final defeat to them in 98, and the latest fix to try and get France out of Pot 2.
None of the teams in Pot 3 look like serious contenders, so I don’t really care which of them we get. Iran might be fun, though.
^ ^
I think we’d have to bring on Sammir in extra time to win it for us!
Nothing beats the Germany win in Lyon!
Beating the reigning Euro champs really put us on the sporting map!
Then we get France in Paris…
Throw in beating the Dutch in a very entertaining match
I don’t think anything’s gonna pass that 2 weeks til we make another semi final or final at a WC, or win a Euro.
@iVica .. definitely keep that one!
I was imagining something just a little better though… us and Brasil in the final, Dudu scores in injury time to tie it up 1-1 in extra time… modric and mandzukic put the shocked brasilieros to sleep 3-1 in OT!
I wonder what Ciro’s astrologer’s have to say for this WC 🙂
@Bronk… if the fix is in, i’d bet the russians get the lump of coal in their stocking, a little payback for their Ukraine meddling. the serbs got it last time such a decision was made.
Here is an article I wrote for Croatia Sports on this topic in the past. Read up boys.
https://croatiansports.com/?p=14204
I am not optimistic about this draw because of the bad press Croatia have been getting from the Simunic incident to Bob Dylan slamming us in the press to the world press hammering us over the yes vote in the marriage referendum.
We all know that the draw is fixed. So get ready to be in a tough group. To quote Michael Jackson: “They don’t really care about us.”
Check out the link to the article:
http://provenquality.com/former-turkish-referee-claims-uefa-fixes-champions-league-draws-with-vibrating-balls/
@ Poglavnik
I checked out that simulator. It’s inaccurate.
It doesn’t account for Platini’s latest card trick. In which a team from Pot 4 gets selected prior to the draw and placed in Pot 2. Instead the simulator has France already in Pot 2, which was originally the case.
@ IvicA
Izvrsno brate! Don’t touch it. That would be pretty darn amazing. I still remember how giddy I was as a kid watching Hrvatska crush Njemacku in 1998 while I was in Pula visiting baku i didu. Unforgettable and ne vjerovatno!
Looks like Mandzukic is finally getting the recognition he deserves. Uefa has included him as a nominee for 2013 team of the year.
http://en.toty.uefa.com/forwards.html
I don’t give a fuck who we play at this point. I’m happy we made it to the world cup.
I’d rather watch Croatia play good teams on the world stage than shitty ones.
everyone in croatian squad needs to watch Tsubasa Ozora. and the team can be like spain in the last world cup, coz the scorer of final Match inspiring with this cartoon !!
http://depor.pe/zona-rosa/super-campeones-iniesta-seria-oliver-aton-real-1003557
peee-yoouuu,those guys in the music clip look like they need a good long bath!!
I dont understand ,where they Albanians or something??
What were they singing??Was it some type of Albanian victory song??? .
peee-yoouuu,those guys in the music clip look like they need a good long bath!!
I dont understand ,where they Albanians or something??
What were they singing??Was it some type of Albanian victory song???
@Poglavnik
I used the WC draw simulator earlier this morning, and it had us finishing second to Brazil in the group stage and going all the way and losing to Brazil in the final, beating Colombia, Belgium, and Italy in the knockout stages.
I haven’t touched the simulator since.
@ Karadzic – You are in desperate need of a hobby. Perhaps volunteer your time? Take up knitting?
@Karadzic – Not bad…..much better musicians than soldiers.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-EQJA8Ahac
95 percent of the time, a team goes down to 10 and its over. Its quite rare that what we did to Iceland happens.
..oops, second game against Iceland
The 1998 victory got us into the World Cup semi-finals. It was our moment in the spotlight. Our first true introduction to the whole World – even to non-soccer fans. A Sunday afternoon nationally televised game here in the States. A perfect set-up where we scored 3 well taken goals.
Yes, there were better performances, but, it was our most famous victory by far.
I’ve seen teams down to 10 men hang on and win games, score goals and outplay opponents. Look what Croatia did in that first game against Iceland.
If Germany was as strong as you think they looked, being down one man should not have stopped them cold.
@ Ante B – your International team Did kik our ass today with , but note ,With 5 of our Top Guys Hurt !! I was going to be Nice & give U this one ! But U have to be a Pizdo & allways contradict yourself !! Be happy U won Doofust ! Be Good ! But Don’t be So Proud of Your Arrogant Mamic/dinamo International team when Our Bili R in Full Strenght !!! Stoj me Dobro , – Mamic Lover !!!
@ Bobby V – Was it because the victory in 98 against Germany was in the knockout stage? Because if it were not for the red card for Worns they would have easily beat us. We were awful up until the red card.
For me, the victory in 2008 against the Germans was a million times better. We outGermaned the Germans that day. That was the most complete game I have ever watched us play. We out-hustled them, out-thought them at every turn.
@nepoznat – true, maybe a matchup after the group stage. I just remember that the second most gratifying win after beating Germany in the quarterfinals in 1998 was eliminating England from the Euros with that Mladen Petric goal – even when we were already qualified – and in Wembley.
In this house we obey the laws of Thermodynamics !!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6vxHkAQRQUQ
@ College Student – Sorry, my only exposure to Thermodynamics is when Lisa from the Simpsons built her Perpetual Motion machine.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8K9lXAZo07c
I have tickets to 5 games for the World Cup. I want the best opponents possible. We usually rise to the occasion against the bigger Nations.
@Bobby V be careful what you wish for! For us to get in a group at the World Cup it would mean we would also be with Argentina/Brazil/Columbia/Uruguay as the lead team, plus a USA or Mexico or Asian team
Has anyone taken Thermodynamics? I need to take it next semester and was wondering what to expect… Hvala puno 🙂
I love to see Tsubasa Ozora in WC 2014 !!
this video shows that he can embarrass Italy team –>
http://youtu.be/pOFJT6Rwu-Q
I just hope Croatia gets England – if not at the World Cup then maybe in our group for Euro 2016. For me, there is no better celebration than after beating them – even more so than the Serbs. Za Bleiburg.
http://espnfc.com/news/story/_/id/1624463/world-cup-2014-draw-simulator?cc=5901
i’ve done this automatic simulator about 10 times now and everytime our group has looked alright to me.
@ IvicA and Bobby
I wouldn’t mind drawing Colombia, Argentina, or Uruguay. They may have a deadly strike-force. But as with most South American sides, their defenses are suspect and prone to lapses in judgement and concentration. They can easily cough up a bunch of goals in a matter minutes. African teams seem to suffer from the same malaise. They just aren’t as solid as Euro sides.
@ Ziva
Fair enough, if you are going to Brazil might as well get your monies worth and want the most difficult side possible.
One more thing for y’all. It looks like we finally had 2 Hrvats (Kovacic and Livaja) starting in Italy today. But the catch is, these were only Coppa Italia matches. Hey at least it’s a start.
@ Karadzic Je Zeroj – You don’t have time to post messages here. Put all that skill you learned at the University of Pristina to use.
http://www.monster.com/
Ide, za djecu.
@ Bobby – Within this qualifying cycle, Messi is far more advanced. Di Maria, yeah, he is an outright winger.
@Bobby V
I think you’re underestimating Argentina’s strikers in Sergio Aguero and Gonzalo Higuain (and Messi if he plays the false nine).
All of Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, and Uruguay have deadly strikers. I don’t consider drawing any one over the other an advantage. I want to avoid all four of those teams and nab a European seed.
But then again, it would be fun and very different to see us play a South American squad.
@PRL – Messi and Di Maria play more of a midfield role with the national team. Aguero is World Class, but any other forward they would start with him makes their partnership less deadlier than Uruguay’s or Colombia’s.
@ Karadzic
Sigh. I’ve mentioned this before, but I’ll say it again.
It must suck being a diaspora Serb. No World Cup for them, and all they have is B92 and InSerbia for their daily news and discussion.
Have you ever read the stories on those sites?
I have. But only because the news app on my phone picks up stories from their sites due to the main key word (Croatia) being flagged on these sites all the time.
These are Serbian news sites, yet all it talks about is Croatia.
Vukovar, WW2, Croats buying up all Serbian businesses, etc….It’s just flat out depressing. The message boards are even worse. Their whole world is Croatia, it’s unbelievable.
But it makes perfect sense as to why a guy like Karadzic is spending so much time on this site. Might as well talk to Croats about Croatia, than talk to Serbs about Croatia.
@ Karadzic – Hey Pot, this is Kettle, you are black!
Croats deserve to be in pot 2 because they are a bunch of barbarians just like the Africans in pot 2
@ Bobby – Its not like Argentina are struggling at forward. Higuain, Aguero, Milito (When healthy) Lavezzi, Icardi and even some guy called Messi.
^ ^
And a “very special appearance” by Eduardo.
^ ^
With Simunic as co-host.
@IvicA
They should ask Sammir to host.
@ Ziva – I am with you on that. I have never considered Mandzukic anywhere world class. He has fallen into the most ideal opportunity a striker could have had. Dont get me wrong, he works very hard, hustling around the field, he has made the very most of his opportunities, I love how his game in the air has progressed. However, he is nowhere near the likes of Cavani, Suarez, Lewandoski, Aguero etc. Listen, no harm in him being just a pretty good striker. he just isnt World Class. He cannot create his own shot, period! He has the pleasure of leading the line to the most complete midfield, one that also has the best depth. Most of his finishes are served to him on a silver platter.
I would advise many of the non believers to look into OptaSports.com
Opta breaks every Football play down into statistics. All sports have begun the process of breaking down plays with a numerical figure or average. They have taken what has worked so well with Baseball. If you look at the heat bloom where Mandzukic scores the majority of his goals, you could easily see it is within 5 years of the goal line. As for Ibra, Cavani, Suarez or Diego Costa, they are all over the map.
Off that for a second. How corrupt has Platini become? I thought nothing could top what he said when the Turkish delegation complained about France being awarded Euro 2016 over Turkey. Not placing France (The lowest ranked European team) into pot two to even the numbers. Rather making it a random draw just shows the lengths he will go to to see France have an easier group.
let us not even start with the Henry hand of God goal that screwed over the Irish.
Colombia and Uruguay’s forwards are better than Brazil and Argentina’s.
Radamel Falcao, Jackson Martinez, Edinson Cavani and Luis Suarez are deadly and all in-form. No way Corluka, Lovern stay with them…they score 4-5 goals against us easy.
Argentina and Brazil’s midfields are much stronger, but, I’d rather play against that and take our chances.
Always impressed with Suarez from day one and today four goals!
I did not see the Southampton game but they lost. Anyone watch it? How did Lovren play?
@NK Drava
Great story and explanation on the 91ers
ESPN FC has updates on all World Cup teams. They have a little slogan on each teams flag. Croatia’s is Hrvatska! Hrvatska!.
I know another slogan they would of been appropriate.
dinamo best team ever. hns no Mamic!Most Loved team in World and Croatia!Halilovic is GOD Simunic, Hrvatska , BOG , Piva , CICO , CroatianSPORTS , ZIVA , BBB , cevapcici ,
Modric & Mandzukic together couldn’t carry Suarez’s gace!
That’s what you call “world class!”
@ Djudjek
Examples of non 91ers.
We flew a Croatian flag under the American flag every Sunday for as long as I can remember. I was born in 1973. I continue to do that today with my children. We raise the flags Sunday morning and take down in the evening-because that what I know.
If anyone (usually friends that didnt know better) said Jugo in our household during my childhood you would of received a stare that you did not want.
I once tried to grow a beard during hunting season and my grandfather made me shave it- Beards are for Serbs he said.
Ustasha was not a bad word. Especially when you are drinking Sliva with them at 15 years old.
I could go on and on as we all can- or Non 91ers can.
Uruguay is one team that would give us problems with their forwards; Suarez and Cavanni
@ziva- those goals were insane!! Wow! Also I bet France won’t even have their name in that per draw! So bullshit!
^ ^
I too was raving about Suarez and that was during his ban when a lot of people here were disregarding him.
Even when he first went to Liverpool I said he would better than Andy Carroll and Fernando Torres (who both cost more).
Top 10 player in the world in my eyes!
A while ago we had a discussion about the top forwards in the world and I said i didn’t consider Mandza a top forward, rather a very vital part of Bayern’s system and also said Suarez was a much better player. Someone responded that Suarez wasn’t on the same level as Mandza. Anyone see Suarez’s goals today. Not too many tap-ins.
Please disregard my previous post hoping for Uruguay out of Pot 1.
Luis Suarez scored 4 today…Wow-
Like Franjo Tudman Mesic Josipovic all 91ers!
@Djudjek
Croats who used to call themselves Yugoslavs (and believed in the whole Yugo ideology) then suddenly called themselves Croats (after Cro’s independence in ’91).
Most of our political figures are 91ers. They play any side that advances their careers.
@ante b
On top of that you have minimal errors in that one.
@Djudjek………I don’t want to turn this into a political discusion because none of us like reading it on the site. If you wish to learn more than I suggest you can follow and ask me any questions on my twitter account: @ziva_istina. I have yet to fully embrace twitter, but am willing to inform those who are uninformed about certain items.
What does 91er stand for new heard it used before not kidding please answer?
Oh boy. They’re just going too far with this:
World Cup draw racism probe opened:
http://www.espn.co.uk/football/sport/story/263305.html
@Ante B……to many spaces and punctuation marks in that one.
@ANONYMOUS………if you don’t know the context of it or understand how it is being used in the song and what it means, then my friend, your relatives have failed you. It’s ok to admit you are a 91er. Nobody is going to hold it against you.
As for the dinamo- jadan i mali hajduk game…………..I was so close to removing the jadan tag from jadan i mali hajduk. They have played so well lately and I was set to just call them mali hajduk, but after today, I just cant do it. So, they will remain jadan i mali hajduk. One day the jadan i mali label will be removed and a capital “H” will be inserted back in the name.
I’d like to do my rendition of Cico’s response. You can all join. Here goes:
Dinamo bad bad Mamic/arrogant international team ! Why Torcida leave ? /$& 7 American ARROGANT . Scum . Best team in WORLD . fans. DOOFUST! American Airlines . 654. Pillow, DOOFUST HNS HAJDUK HRVATI. no Mamic. So so sad !
Dinamo was better team fast strong and had ideas and hajduk was bad Basic looked good when he came in everyone else 0 ocjena today. mali mujo scored for dinamo.
come on cico what is the excuse today, 5-0
you always are on the minute you win, oh well
enjoy third place and no Super Kup
http://www.sportsnet.ca/soccer/wc-draw-favouring-france-not-platinis-idea/
I guess the Dutch didn’t like the last second rule change by FIFA. I didn’t realize they had the same type of draw format for Germany 2006 when Serbia and Montenegro was the lowest-ranked of nine unseeded European nations and was placed in a separate draw pot.
My possible squad ill do it for fun im bored
Keepers-Pletikosa Subasic Kalinic.
Defenders-Srna Lovren Carli Pranjic Sifo Kelic Simunic Left back?,
Mid-Modric Rakitic Kovacic Ilicevic Perisic Sertic(possible) Badelj Males Kranjcar.
Fowards-Mandzo Rebic Olic Eduardo Benko Jelavic or new!
Hey Cico, can we get a little post match commentary on today’s game?
You’re posts always make me smile!
@ mali hrvat ziva. i know what “tisuca generacija nocas ne spava” means. i want to know the context of it
Ante B is still in panic mode.
This win has alleviated his fears a bit, but Dinamo’s HNL championship run is still far from a sure thing.
Dinamo takes the Croatian Cup with a 5:0 win over Hajduk today. Worst part is that I could barely give a shit. If this was back in the late 90s early 00s, then that would be a different story.
we fall in pot 2 and draw BiH from 4………mostar will be fun
and here is jock sniffing in its finest form ever. Nothing worse than jock sniffing yourself.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/players/cristiano-ronaldo/10495622/Cristiano-Ronaldo-to-open-museum-on-home-island-of-Madeira-dedicated-to-himself.html
I’m a veliki hrvat…………why don’t you go find a dictionary or ask one of your relatives who has apparently failed you in life.
so no one here knows what “tisuca generacija novas ne spava” means huh? and i thought there were some veliki hrvati around here
@Nepoznat
That’s what time I saw it on a commercial on TSN (Canadian ESPN affiliate). We probably have a 30 min pre show up here before the draw begins.
I want a tough group. My plan right now is to go to the World Cup. I don’t want to pay $300 for each game and watch Cro- Swiss or Cro-Iran or Cro-Algeria. Give me Brazil, Germany or Argentina from the first round. Have Holland or Italy fall into group 2 and then we get them. I’ll be ok with a Brazil/Holland/Mexico/Cro group. We are not going to win the World Cup anyway with our roster, so let me see the best of the best against lijepa nasa.
It means I get to see star players in all three games and I like to spend my money on quality products. I have Sony and Samsung TVs in the fortified basement, along Apple products. Not Acer and Zenith electronics.
Rule #13
No show and tell.
I’m calling all 4 South American teams from Pot 1 studs. So that’s 1 in 2.
But then getting drawn as Team X already confirms that. There’s way too many possibilities here. At this point I just want to sit back and see what Croatia gets. We know the rules. Everything else is up in the air.
Unless you’re King Bronk and, well, you know how that goes…
Next lesson: permutations and 16th century French history!
@Prof Ante
pic of the hot TA? hehe
and so what are the overall odds of being placed in the WC Group with:
stud SAmerican lead team
Hrvatska or another Euro team put into Pot 2/B
Hrvatska or another Euro team from Pot 4/D
NAmerican/Asian team
@ nepoznat,
You are correct on both fronts. I apologize. Professor Kvartuc’s hot TA kept him up too late last night and he didn’t have his lesson plan down.
The 11.11% I wrote implied “instant” doom. We get put in Pot 2 and let the fireworks begin. Regarding all the other math, you are right, even if we miss Pot B, we’re still 1 in 8 to play in that group no matter what.
My 1 in 72 scenario are the odds to be drawn into Pot B and then a SPECIFIC country from D.
Even if we avoid getting picked into B, those odds no longer habe anything to do with the odds the rest of the draw. So it’s 1 in 8.
I want Croatia to be drawn in an Easy to Medium difficulty group. Because the way I look at it. I don’t want any excuses for not making the knockout phase.
I don’t want Kovac and the HNS brass to say “oh we had a difficult group, that’s why we couldn’t make it”. I want to see if they can progress when they are supposed to.
@Ante reading back I think we are talking about different things/odds. Now I see the headline and in the article you talk about 11% only pertains to the odds of being the Euro team drawn into Pot B and isn’t referring to the odds of being in the same eventual WC Group with the Euro team drawn into Pot B. That is definitely 11%
I would (and have been) argue(ing) that the doom doesn’t stop there because we could still be drawn into the same WC Group as that Euro team in Pot B plus one of the 4 stud South American teams. “Winning” either draw spells doom so 11% doesn’t quite cut it as we’re not out of the woods after that first draw
what does tisuca generacija nocas ne spava mean? any takers?
@Poglavnik re: times
Are you sure? ESPN3.com has it starting at 11am EST (they must have 30 min pre-show) and ESPN2 showing it on TV at 11:30AM
see here:
http://espn.go.com/watchespn/index#type/upcoming/startDate/20131206/sport/soccer-futbol/
@vatrena lmao about concacrap
7:30am PST, 10:30am EST
Sorry Iggy, don’t have the Aussie times 🙂
does anyone know what time the draw will be?
i hereby vote that concacaf should officially be renamed concacrap.
im saying from a soccer skill stand point. I know it all revolves around money though.
@Ante are you sure? I believe when you combine the two odds like that 1/9 * 1/8 then you are calculating the odds that BOTH events occur (which is not possible).
I agree 1/9 aka 11% chance to be drawn in pot B
then 1/8 to be drawn in to the same Group as the Euro team that went into Pot B which is a 12.5% chance in that draw
since EITHER (aka OR) of those 2 draws means Croatia would be in that Group you do the calculation as follows:
Prob of drawn into Pot B
PLUS
Prob of drawn into Group with Euro team drawn into Pot B
MINUS
Probability of both occurring (really this is zero but the formula says multiply Prob 1 * Prob 2 aka the 1/72)
EQUALS
The Probability of EITHER draw occuring
1 out of 9 = 1/9 aka 11.11%
and then (if not selected)
1 out of 8 = 1/8 aka 12.5%
Prob of both occurring (I know this is not possible) 1/9 * 1/8 = 1/72 aka 1.38%
Probability of either occurring = 1/9 + 1/8 – 1/72 = 22.23%
see here:
http://easycalculation.com/statistics/learn-multiple-event-probability.php
specifically the section about the Probability that EITHER of events occur P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B).
Why 4 CONCACAF teams?????? Because of the level of interest rising in the game in the US and the TV dollars FIFA gets from the US and Mexican TV companies.
@ziva true but i dont know, I still think its harder to beat a european shitty team that has some players playing in the top leagues then have a honduras costa rica jamaica and etc.
How can they honestly justify 4 concacaf teams? honduras and costa rica wont win a single game. Lets face Croatia has played some of its worst soccer ever this last qualification and we lost to scotland respectively. The US on the other hand is playing, according to the US experts, some of its best soccer and they tied scotland. I understand it was a friendly game but still.
Professor Kvartuc has arrived..and he will be on the boards a bit more this week to answer all of your questions.
Draws and playoff seedings are one of the most exciting things in sports. We can run scenarios all day, but come Friday, it is what it is. I hope we don’t get a chump group with Switzerland, Algeria, Honduras (something like that).
The 6-month lead up to the tournament is almost just as good as the World Cup itself. It’s like the offseason in professional sports where trades and free agents are in negotions. Just as good in my opinion.
I’ll take an Argentina, USA/Mexico group all day. They’re fun matchups. It’s the World Cup. If you want to do some damage, you need to beat someone good.
Imagine topping a Switzerland, Algeria, Honduras group with 9 points and then getting blown out by a Brazil/Germany in the Round of 16. Not for me.
As for the odds scenario, Statistics 101 is in session.
We already know that Croatia has a 1 in 9 (11.11%) chance of being thrown into Pot B right off the bat, along with all the other unseeded European sides.
And although 2/9 European teams from Pot 4 will play together, that’s not how you calculate it. It needs to be done independently. As of now, and not mid-draw, there is a 1 in 9 chance to get drawn in Pot B and then another 1 in 8 chance to be drawn into a group with that European lone ranger. So that’s (1/9)*(1/8) which is 1 in 72 or 1.39% we play another team from Pot 4 IF Croatia is not the first team drawn out, which still lies at 11%.
Dinko Dog,
As far as my rose colored glasses go, I have no allegience to US soccer whatsoever. I may live in the States but that has nothing to do with my rankings on the fact.
Klinsmann will have the Yanks ready for this WC. He has been waiting for this moment for a very long time. Japan and South Korea are small teams and had little competition to qualify for the WC. Australia is trash these days and Iran limped in with poor results around them. The 5th place team from Asia was Jordan, who beat Uzbekistan in a playoff.
There’s not enough information in Asia to determine if Japan or South Korea can do any damage, but I’m not going to buy in until I see it on the pitch. And I’m not going to be using any results in friendlies against European teams to justify them being good.
I still think Mexico will be the dark horse out of Pot C. They have new life after a horrible campaign and half 6 months to get their stuff together. The new campaign starts now…and if Croatia does get put into B, give me England. Would love a chance to embarass them in front of the world this time around.
That’ll be all for today class. I’ll let you guys out early. It’s a nice day outside. Enjoy.
@Mishko………..yeah???? so, what is your point?? Dude may have done that on purpose or maybe not. Either way, Lovren didn’t have the Cro jersey on for that match, so I really don’t care what happens with our players when they don’t wear the Cro jersey.
@vatrena cast…………….true, but who did Cro beat to get to the World Cup? Here are the teams we beat: Serbia (once), Wales (twice), Macedonia (twice) and Iceland (once). I could say the teams the US beat were more impressive than what Cro did.
@mishko
hes an asshole but I cant say that was on purpose. Lovren was flopping on the ground like a snake when you cut its head off. Asshole or not hes one of the best players in the world.
@Ziva. Zlatan is an asshole, fuck him. Do you remember this?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2NdrAYDqAw
@ziva i know it will never happen but they should have a cross continent qualification. It is not fair how much harder it is for european countries to make the world cup. you look at who the US has to beat and its like goddamn really? i feel like cross continent qualification, even though it would never happen, would be the only way to ensure that the best nations make the world cup.
Simunic is king. He just scored against Hajduk.
ok I googled the statistical probability, if I am doing this correctly using Probability that either of the multiple events occurs:
1 out of 9 = 11.11%
and then (if not selected)
1 out of 8 = 12.5%
Prob of both occurring (I know this is not possible) 1/9 * 1/8 = 1/72
Probability of either occurring = 1/9 + 1/8 – 1/72 = 22.23% aka basically exactly what I said
http://easycalculation.com/statistics/learn-multiple-event-probability.php
Ziva, re: math: sorry I should’ve been more clear, I wasn’t adding the values:
2 out of 9 teams from pot 4 will be in that group
2/9 = something like 22.5%
and I forget stats class and how to combine the two odds (1/9 and 1/8) correctly, but regardless 2 out of 9 teams in our Pot will be out in that group and 2/9 is like 23%
It means your parents have failed you.
in the stands for the iceland game it said, “tisuca generacija nocas ne spava”. i know this means a thousand generations do not sleep tonight. and i know this lyric in the moja domovina song. what does this phrase mean?
Argentina Algeria mexico croatia
I’ve ran a draw simulator a couple times and came up with inreresting groups for Croatia. Brazil, Ghana, Costa Rica, Cro.
Belgium, Ivory Coast, South Korea, Cro.
I’d take either.
Looking at the Pots without Euro centric glasses on, I would argue there is too much European influence. 13 out of 32 teams, or for the percentage people out there 40.6% of the teams are from Europe.
I hope they don’t increase the field. They need to keep it exclusive and as is.
I hope we draw Uruguay from pot 1. I would love to see Luis Suarez attempt to bite Big Joe. Talk about a firestorm.
Pot 2- Algeria. Why not
Pot 3- Mexico- We owe them a beat down
@ Ziva. I just think it’s the principal of it. If it was supposed to be that the lowest seeded country in FIFA was to go into the 2nd pot then why was it altered. I don’t believe it’s a real complaint, just throwing in my 2 cents but I do hate the French, never have liked them in any regards.
I am happy we are there this summer considering qualifying was a roller coaster.
I’d like to see Sweden as well. But, they had their chance. Zlatan missing out on the WC blows. They had a tough group and then a tough draw in the playoffs.
@ziva
I hear what youre saying and I understand that. I know Im dreaming a farfetched dream but Im just saying USA mexico honduras and costa rica are in the world cup and teams like sweden and other top teams in the world arent.
I know that you make your own future and blah blah blah but im just stating what i would like to see.
@vatrena cast…………It’s called the World Cup for a reason, not the Mostly European Cup, but the WORLD CUP. What do you want??? 20 Europeans teams???
I’m OK with the current number of teams and the setup. FIFA has a role and responsibility to build the game throughout the world. Plus, with the amount of money coming in from sponsors and TV rights in N. America and the Asia market, there is zero chance spots from Asia and CONCACAF will be cut. And they shouldn’t.
i wouldnt mind any team out of pot 2 and 3.
with that being said bring on anyone from pot 1 because we should be able to make 2nd place in any group
Bang on.
I always laughed at the conspiracy theorists amongst my parents when I coached rep soccer, and they were evaluating tournament groupings…..to be the champion you have to beat the best.
Bring it on.
Ill be damned if pot 4 isnt stronger than pot 1.
They need to cut concacaf teams and only let 2 teams in, idealy 1.
Asia needs to cut a team out and africa as well.
give more spots to europe. This should be a competition for the best teams in the world not this crap.
needs to be Euro cup plus brazil and argentina.
@Bjorn Borg………..Platini is the head of UEFA, not FIFA. Give credit to the French federation for any possible influence/pressure they may have applied to FIFA.
I really dont care, because you have to be able to win games at the World Cup to advance.
You know who complains about draws and pots??????????? Fans of team who can’t win without a little help. Get over it. We all know FIFA doesn’t play a fair game and personal and self-interest comes first. If you want to play in FIFA competitions then you have to put up with their sranje.
you must have struggled with math in school.. It is not a 23% chance, you don’t add the two figures.
Platini you fuck. Yeah, let’s just change the draw format the last second to appease this guy. Go eat a dick sandwich.
I hate the French.
I would love if we somehow drew them and had the chance to smash them next summer.
isn’t in now 2 out of 9 spots that will wind up in that group therefore chances are
1 out of 9 = 11.11%
and then (if not selected)
1 out of 8 = 12.5%
so something like 23% chance of being drawn into that mess thanks to Platini bailing out France
alos, pay attention to the groups. Chance we could have to play 2 or even all 3 matches up in the north where it is more humid than the rest of Brazil. Plus, that would be a nightmare for fans wanting to be based near Sao Paulo or Rio.
USA are not the strongest team in pot 3, take off your rose colored sunglasses. Japan are a better team than USA without a doubt.
Also strongest possible group from Pot 4 is Italy. They would beat France and England 9 times out of 10…. probably 10 straight against England.